The Effects of Metropolitan Labor-Demand Shocks on Urban Poverty

鉴于最近人们对城市下层阶级的担忧，大都市劳动力需求和城市贫困之间的关系受到了相当大的关注。目前的理论关注的是城市穷人的地理位置和技能与大都市地区工作的地理位置和技能之间的不匹配。对劳动力市场状况的总体分析表明，劳动力需求和劳动力供给的变化对城市贫困人口的劳动力市场状况有直接影响。这个项目将通过估计大都市劳动力需求如何影响个人遭受持续贫困的可能性来加深对城市贫困的理解。这些影响将针对不同的穷人和非穷人群体进行研究：福利母亲、长期失业的成年男子、依赖福利的家庭的儿童和贫困劳动者。该项目的数据将来自收入动态调查小组1968-87年的个人文件，将用于估计大都市劳动力需求的变化如何影响贫困和非贫困居民的收入、就业活动和工资，以及需求冲击如何影响个人的贫困概率。这项研究将随着时间的推移跟踪相同的人，考察他们的收入和贫困状况如何随着当地劳动力需求的变化而变化。将考虑各种劳动力需求和供给冲击，如大都市地区整体就业变化、按行业划分的就业变化以及大都市地区就业的地理分布。该项目应提供有关地区劳动力需求状况如何影响贫困人口的重要信息。研究应该指出，反贫困政策是否应该包括努力增加对穷人的劳动力需求，或者其他反贫困政策是否应该得到更大的重视。这个项目将是第一个跟踪同一组人一段时间的项目，也是第一个关注大都市就业需求冲击如何影响穷人的项目。这些结果应该会提供对不同贫困群体的劳动力需求影响的复杂分析。因此，项目成果应成为制定有针对性的政策处方的基础，以满足特定的城市穷人群体的需要。

The relationship between metropolitan labor demand and urban poverty has received considerable attention in light of recent concern about the urban underclass. Current theory focuses on mismatches between the location and skills of the urban poor on the one hand and the location and skills of metropolitan area jobs on the other. An overall approach to labor market conditions suggests that changes in both labor demand and labor supply have a direct effect on labor market conditions for the urban poor. This project will further an understanding of urban poverty by estimating how metropolitan labor demand affects an individual's probability of suffering persistent poverty. These effects will be examined for different groups of the poor and non-poor: welfare mothers, long-term jobless adult men, children from welfare dependent families, and the working poor. Data for the project will come from the 1968-87 individual file of the Panel Survey on Income Dynamics and will be used to estimate how metropolitan labor demand shifts affect the earnings, employment activity, and wages of poor and non-poor residents and how demand shocks affect an individual's probability of being poor. The research will follow the same individuals over time, examining how their incomes and poverty status change in response to changes in local labor demand. A variety of labor demand and supply shocks will be considered, such as overall metropolitan area employment change, change in employment by industry, and the geographical distribution of employment within metropolitan areas. This project should provide important information about how regional labor demand conditions affect poor individuals. The research should indicate whether anti-poverty policies should include efforts to increase demand for the labor of the poor or whether other anti-poverty policies should receive greater emphasis. This project will be the first to follow the same set of individuals over time, and it is the first to focus on how metropolitan employment demand shocks affect the poor. The results should provide sophisticated analyses of labor demand effects on distinct groups of the poor. As such the project results should form the basis for policy prescriptions targeted to meet the needs of specific segments of the urban poor.