Research Initiation: Capacity Expansion and Replacement in an Uncertain Dynamic Technological Environment

本研究的目的是开发模型，在进行收购和替换决策时考虑未来创新的可能性。该研究特别关注产能扩张和替代模型，其中一系列技术突破是预期的，但其规模和时间是不确定的。在这样的环境下运营的公司必须决定，为了满足未来的需求增长，应该获得多少当前最佳可用技术的容量。它还必须决定是否部分或完全更换任何较旧的年份，重点是过时而不是退化作为更换的动机。这样的决定在电子和其他以快速技术变革为特征的行业中至关重要。本研究还考虑了在快速变化的市场中产品生命周期和制造灵活性之间的相互作用。这项工作的动机是对汽车装配柔性装配线投资决策的经济分析。未来几代产品的出现导致专用传输线的过时。另一方面，柔性生产线可以加工连续几代的产品。灵活装配线所需的高投资与这些装配线的减少过时进行了权衡。

The objective of this research is to develop models which consider the possibility of future innovations while taking acquisition and replacement decisions. In particular, the research focuses on a capacity expansion and replacement model wherein a sequence of technological breakthroughs are anticipated but their magnitude and timing are uncertain. A firm, operating in such an environment, must decide how much capacity of the current best available technology to acquire to meet the future demand growth. It must also determine whether to replace any of the older vintages partially or completely, with the focus on obsolescence rather than deterioration as the motive for replacement. Such decisions are of the essence in electronics and other industries characterized by rapid technological change. This research also considers the interaction between product life cycles and manufacturing flexibility in a rapidly changing market. This work is motivated by the economic analysis of investment decisions in flexible assembly lines for automobile assembly. The advent of future generations of products lead to obsolescence of dedicate transfer lines. Flexible lines, on the other hand, can process successive generations of product. The high investment required in flexible assembly line is weighed against the reduced obsolescence of such lines.