Household Credit, Default Consequences, and Consumption in the 1930s: The Importance of Institutional Characteristics

1930年，消费下降的速度超过了收入下降所能解释的速度，将一场严重的衰退变成了大萧条。然而，尽管它很重要，但这种下降仍然无法解释。这个项目提供了一个解释。1929年，家庭负债达到了前所未有的高度。其中大部分是分期付款债务。对分期付款合同的违约导致财产被没收而没有赔偿。尽管分期付款高达月收入的30%，但在1930年收入下降时，美国家庭并没有违约。该项目表明，无法解释的消费下降是家庭避免违约的手段：当家庭预期工资削减时，他们会立即减少消费，以便偿还债务，避免代价高昂的违约。该项目说明了制度特征的重要性。随后违约后果的变化降低了消费对当前收入波动的敏感性。本项目对现有的两项家庭收入和支出调查进行分析；1928年和1933年同一家庭住户调查的编码和分析；20世纪30年代工资削减模式分析以及对管理违约后果的法律环境的历史分析，违约的程度，二手耐用品的价格，以及抵押和证券化实践对贷方调整现有信贷条款能力的影响。

In 1930, consumption fell more rapidly than is explained by income declines, turning a bad recession into the Great Depression. Yet despite its importance, this drop remains unexplained. This project offers an explanation. Household indebtedness stood at an unprecedented high in 1929. Much of this was installment debt. Default on an installment contract resulted in wealth-reducing repossession without compensation. Although installment payments were up to 30 percent of monthly pay, households did not default when income fell in 1930. This project suggests the unexplained drop in consumption was the means by which households avoided default: when households anticipated wage cuts, they immediately reduced consumption so they could pay off their debts and avoid costly default. The project illustrates the importance of institutional characteristics. Subsequent change in default consequences lessened the sensitivity of consumption to current income fluctuations. This project pursues the analysis of two existing household surveys of income and expenditure; coding and analysis of a household survey covering the years 1928 and 1933 for the same families; analysis of the pattern of wage cuts in the 1930s; and historical analysis of the legal environment governing default consequences, the extent of default, the prices of used durable goods, and the impact of the practices of collateralization and securitization on a lender's ability to adjust existing credit terms.