A Unified Information-Value Approach to Sensitivity Analysis

对物理和社会科学中的现象进行敏感性分析的统一信息价值方法经常要进行敏感性分析，在敏感性分析中，分析员评估模型对参数值变化的影响(敏感性)。然而，随着模型变得复杂，这样的评估变得繁琐、耗时，有时还会令人怀疑参数值的所有相关组合是否都已考虑在内？这项研究将探讨使用关于一个或一组参数的“完美信息的期望值”作为对这些参数的问题敏感性的衡量标准的可能性，这是一个既公理合理又符合期望值最大化的程序。还将对标准敏感性分析进行回溯性分析，以了解使用这些方法得出的结论与“完美信息期望值”方法所建议的结论相比如何。

A Unified Information-Value Approach to Sensitivity Analysis Models of phenomena in physical and social science are quite often subject to sensitivity analyses in which analysts evaluate the effects (sensitivity) of the model to changes in parameter values. As models become complex, however, such evaluations becomes cumbersome, time consuming and, at times, suspect õ have all the relevant combinations of parameter values been considered? This research will examine the possibility of using the `expected value of perfect informationn on a parameter or group of parameters as a measure of problem sensitivity to those parameters õ a procedure which is both axiomatically sound and consistent with expected value maximization. A retrospective analysis of standard sensitivity analyses will also be conducted to see how conclusions reached using such methods compare with those suggested by the `expected value of perfect informationn approach.