Anticipating ecological shifts in subtropical marine ecosystems

该项目旨在揭开亚热带生态突变的原因，并预测它们在海洋变暖中的未来。该项目在一个新的多物种框架内结合了大规模的现场观察和建模，试图量化气候变暖和物种相互作用如何结合在一起，在热带化的不同阶段加剧亚热带珊瑚礁的变化。预期结果包括对促进澳大利亚和日本亚热带海岸稳定或变化的因素的新见解，热带物种的涌入已经在这两个国家产生了戏剧性的后果。通过比较澳大利亚的动态和日本的热带化热点，该项目有望预测未来的生态变化，并有利于战略管理。

This project aims to unravel the causes of abrupt ecological change in the subtropics and predict their future in warming seas. Uniting large-scale field observation and modelling in a novel multi-species framework, this project seeks to quantify how warming and species interactions combine to escalate change on subtropical reefs at different stages of tropicalisation. Expected outcomes include new insights into the factors that promote stability or change along subtropical coasts in Australia and Japan, where the influx of tropical species already has dramatic consequences. By comparing dynamics in Australia with tropicalisation hotspots in Japan, this project expects to anticipate future ecological shifts and benefit strategic management.