Ethnic Minorities and Political Support: An Examination of Attitudes in Three Former Soviet Republics

少数民族对居住国的忠诚度有多高？他们对其政治制度和政治领导人的支持程度如何？如果在特定的少数群体中存在差异，如何在个人层面上解释这种差异？少数族裔的政治支持是一种理性的考量，还是与身份相关的主观因素的结果？这些是这项将在三个前苏联加盟共和国进行的研究的中心问题：白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦。调查人员将大规模调查和焦点小组相结合，以检查少数族裔，特别是俄罗斯以外的俄罗斯人对其居住状态的依恋程度，以及他们对其机构的支持程度。该项目解决了关于后共产主义国家态度的现有文献中的四个主要缺陷：强调俄罗斯国内的态度；综合水平数据分析的主导地位；政治支持要素的混乱；以及在特定研究中有限地使用多种方法。这项多国家、多方法的研究比目前更好地理解了少数民族“政治支持”的原因、在特定民族中的差异以及在新独立国家和新独立国家之间的差异。理解这种支持及其变化，使学者们能够理解为什么我们在一个后苏联国家会发生种族冲突，而不是在另一个国家，这将有助于理解民族民族主义的未来以及俄罗斯与邻国之间的关系。因此，对这一理解的影响既包括更好地理解和预测该区域的国内和国际政治，也包括更好地理解西方国家和国际组织应鼓励在前苏联实行的政策和做法。将产生的数据集将对有兴趣探索这一主题的学者具有重要价值。

How loyal are ethnic minorities to their state of residence? How supportive are they of its political system and political leaders? If variation exists within a given minority, what explains this variation at the individual level? Is political support by ethnic minorities a rational calculation or is it the result of subjective, identity-related factors? These are the central questions of this research investigation to be undertaken in three former Soviet republics: Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. The investigators combine mass surveys and focus groups to examine the attachment of minorities, especially ethnic Russians outside Russia, to their state of residence and their level of support for its institutions. The project addresses four major shortcomings in the existing literature on attitudes in the post-Communist states: the emphasis on attitudes within Russia; the dominance of aggregate level data analysis; the confusion of the elements of political support; and, the limited use of multiple methods within a given study. This multi-country, multi-method study produces a better understanding than now exists of the reasons for `political support` by an ethnic minority, variation in it within a given ethnic group, and variation in it from newly independent state to newly independent state. Understanding such support and its variation enables scholars to make sense of the puzzle of why we have ethnic conflict in one post-Soviet state and not another, and it will help in understanding the future of ethnic nationalism and relations between Russia and its neighbors. The implications for this understanding thus include both a better ability to understand and predict domestic and international politics in the region and a better understanding of the types of policies and practices that Western countries and international organizations should be encouraging in the former Soviet Union. The dataset to be produced will be of great value to scholars interested in exploring this topic.