Studies in Aggregate Analysis

这项研究的目标是开发工具，允许将长期存在的组织引入宏观经济的应用一般均衡分析，并在解决经济问题时利用这些工具。许多经济洞察力仅仅是通过依赖总生产函数和引入管理资本和劳动力的企业家来获得的。然而，如果要成功地解决某些问题，引入大型组织是必要的。我将这些大型组织建模为充满活力的联盟或俱乐部。这些组织的一个特点是，他们能够而且经常这样做，比他们的创始人更长寿。另一个关键特征是，他们的寿命取决于后代的参与约束和未来管理者的激励相容约束。目前，企业的总价值远远超过其实物资产的价值减去净负债。或许，大量的无形组织资本体现在企业身上。如果是这样的话，对组织资本的投资对衡量经济表现具有重要的影响。这一理论对于发展代际转移计划，特别是社会保障安排的理论具有重要意义。这一理论还可以扩展到分析经济联盟的形成和扩张，特别是最近的欧盟和北美自由贸易协定，以及更早的美国。

The objectives of this research is to develop tools that permit the introduction of long-lived organizations into applied general equilibrium analyses of the macro economy and to exploit these tools in addressing economic issues. Many economic insights have been gained simply by relying on an aggregate production function and by introducing entrepreneurs that manage capital and labor. However, introducing large organizations is necessary if certain issues are to be addressed successfully. I model these large organizations as dynamic coalitions or clubs. One feature of these organizations is that they can, and often do, outlive their founders. Another key feature is that their longevity depends upon future generation participation constraints and future managers' incentive compatibility constraints.Theory which includes such long-lived organizations has consequences for measurement. Currently the aggregate value of firms far exceeds the value of their physical assets less their net indebtedness. Perhaps huge amounts of intangible organization capital are embodied in firms. If so, the investment in organization capital has important consequences for measuring the performance of the economy. This theory has relevance for developing a theory of intergeneration transfer schemes, in particular social security arrangements. The theory may also be extended to analyze the formation and expansion of economic unions, in particular the European Union and NAFTA in recent times, and the United States earlier.