An Empirical Assessment of the Influences of Social Class Isolation and Racial Residential Segregation on Trajectories of Change in Rates of African-American Homicide Offending

结合1970年、1980年和1990年的人口普查信息以及1976年至1994年期间美国非裔美国人杀人犯罪数据，本研究从经验上检验了两种强有力的解释方案的相对有效性：威尔逊提出的一种方案认为，种族与犯罪之间关系的最重要决定因素是非洲裔美国人集中在结构混乱的社区。由Massey等人提出的竞争理论认为，种族居住隔离和贫困的相互作用在导致非裔美国人杀人和受害率上升方面更为相关。本研究的分析方法为层次线性增长曲线分析法。1976-1994年期间，非裔美国人杀人犯罪率的数据将嵌套在各县。一级模型估计了每个县内非裔美国人杀人犯罪率随时间的变化。这些轨迹的参数（趋势线的截距、斜率和加速度）描述了杀人犯罪率变化的本质。二级模型估计了这些趋势在国家之间的差异。这项研究的重要性在于，它有望增进人们对助长城市暴力的力量的理解，而城市暴力是年轻黑人男性死亡的主要原因。

Combining information from the 1970, 1980, and 1990 censuses of the population with African-American homicide offending data in the United States for the period 1976-1994, this research examines, empirically, the relative efficacy of two powerful explanatory schemes: One proposed by Wilson suggesting that the most important determinant of the relationship between race and crime is the concentration of African-Americans in structurally disorganized communities. The competing theory, proposed by Massey et al., argues that the interaction of racial residential segregation and poverty is more relevant in causing accelerating rates of African-American homicide and victimization. The analytic method for the research is hierarchical linear growth curve analysis. Data on rates of African-American homicide offending will be nested within counties over the period 1976-1994. The Level-1 model estimates the changes in African-American homicide offending rates within each county, over time. The parameters of these trajectories (the intercept, slope, and acceleration of the trend lines) describe the nature of change in the homicide offending rates. The Level-2 model estimates differences between counties in these trends. The importance of the research lies in the promise of increased understanding of the forces that foster urban violence, the leading cause of death among young black males.