Strategic Renewal of Large Floodplain Rivers: Integrated Analysis

大河及其流经的山谷养育着丰富的水生和耐洪动植物，以及各种各样的人类经济活动。 生态系统自然地随着周期性的洪水脉冲而演变，但沿着这些河流建造大坝打乱了这些循环，土地从自然覆盖转变为有管理的土地使用也是如此。 参与河流、洪泛区和大河流域其他部分管理的人面临的一个挑战是，制定管理战略和做法，维持生态系统，而不破坏在同一地区发展起来的人类经济和住区系统。 这个跨学科的项目建立在一个团队的水文学家，生态学家，经济学家和区域科学家的努力，目前从事适应系统组件模型之间的拉格朗日和皮奥里亚大坝在中西部伊利诺伊州的伊利诺伊河80英里的一段。 该项目的水文部分将涉及一维和二维模型的校准，以及对高频洪水事件和战略管理变化的建模测试。 生态部分将涉及建立洪泛平原森林和沼泽植被的动态水文模型。 生境适宜性指数和专业判断将产生对鱼类和野生动物物种组合和种群水平随之变化的估计。 经济研究将估计区域收入和就业的变化，并确定在不同的管理方案下特别受影响的县以下地区。 关于这些组件模型及其之间联系的工作将在国家超级计算应用中心提供的高速计算和先进数据管理环境中进行。 这个超级计算环境还将用于开发可视化工具，用于向利益相关者传达空间动态研究成果。 该项目将开发一套河流/洪泛区系统的水文和生态相互关联的动态模型，并将其与当地经济联系起来。 该项目的重点是组件模型之间的差距和联系，并将创建可视化工具来传达建模结果。 这些模型将用于模拟，测试，并与利益相关者交流有关的替代恢复战略的一般假设：河流水文和洪泛区土地可以恢复生态系统服务的方式进行管理，同时不减少受影响地区的整体经济福祉。

Large rivers and the valleys through which they flow support a rich array of aquatic and flood-tolerant plants and animals as well as a diverse set of human economic activities. Ecological systems naturally evolved in response to periodic flood pulses, but the construction of large dams along these rivers has disrupted these cycles, as has the conversion of land from natural cover to managed land uses. A challenge facing those involved in management of rivers, floodplains, and other parts of large river valleys is to develop management strategies and practices that sustain ecological systems without disrupting the human economic and settlement systems that have evolved in the same areas. This interdisciplinary project builds on the efforts of a team of hydrologists, ecologists, economists, and regional scientists currently engaged in adapting system-component models to an 80-mile section of the Illinois River between the LaGrange and Peoria dams in west-central Illinois. A hydrological component of this project will involve the calibration of 1-D and 2-D models and the testing of their modeling of high-frequency flood events and strategic management changes. An ecological component will involve the creation of dynamic, hydrology-driven models of floodplain forest and marsh vegetation. Habitat suitability indices and professional judgments will produce estimates of consequent changes in fish and wildlife species mix and population levels. Economic research will estimate changes in regional income and employment and identify sub-county areas that will be particularly affected under different management scenarios. Work on these component models and on linkages among them will be conducted in the high speed computing and advanced data management environment available through the National Center for Supercomputing Applications. This supercomputing environment also will be employed to develop visualization tools for communicating spatially dynamic research findings to stakeholders. This project will develop a suite of interrelated, dynamic models of hydrology and ecology of a river/floodplain system and will link them to the local economy. The project focuses on gaps within and linkages among the component models and will create visualization tools to communicate the modeling results. The models will be used to simulate, test, and communicate with stakeholders about alternative restoration strategies related to the general hypothesis that: river hydrology and floodplain lands can be managed in ways that restore ecosystem services while not diminishing the overall economic well-being of the affected region.