SBIR Phase I: A New Approach for Enhancing Capital Investment Decisions by Optimizing Returns and Risks of Project Portfolios

这个小型企业创新研究(SBIR)项目寻求设计一种算法方法，并开发试点软件，以优化项目组合的回报和相关风险，以显著改善资本融资和预算编制的绩效。该项目预计将实现：用于智能地为石油和天然气、制药、生物工程、重型制造等行业的项目组合实现接近最佳解决方案的算法方法；结合该方法与模拟相结合的试验软件；用于测试软件的关键性能指标；以及用于评估客户需求满意度的价值主张。这种新的方法将提供一种生成模型表示的方法，该方法比过去的工作产生的模型表示更具可利用性。结合其他软件，结果将在有效解决项目组合管理问题的能力方面提供重大进步。预计最终软件系统的商业应用是加强资本预算编制和项目组合管理的业绩。虽然人们普遍认识到当前方法的局限性，但事实证明，这些方法的任何替代方法都没有足够的吸引力，足以被广泛接受为一种可行的选择方法。基于这一观察，以及对市场规模超过7.5亿美元的估计，存在着一个重要的商机。

This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project seeks to design an algorithmic approach and develop pilot software for optimizing the returns and associated risks of project portfolios to significantly improve the performance of capital finance and budgeting. This project is expected to achieve: an algorithmic approach for intelligently achieving near-optimal solutions for project portfolios in industries such as oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, bioengineering, heavy manufacturing, etc.; pilot software that incorporates this approach when integrated with simulation; key performance indicators to test the software; and a value proposition to assess the satisfaction of customer requirements. This new approach will provide a way to generate a model representation that is far more exploitable than those produced by past efforts. Coupled with other software, the outcome will provide a major advance in the ability to solve problems of project portfolio management effectively. The commercial applications anticipated for the ultimate software system are enhancement of the performance of capital budgeting and project portfolio management. While recognition of the limitations of current approaches is universal, none of the alternatives to these approaches has proved attractive enough to become widely embraced as a viable method of choice. Based on this observation and an estimate of the market size to be over $750M, a significant business opportunity exists.