Hurricane Intensity Response to Changes in Inflow Thermodynamics

热带气旋强度，定义为最低海平面气压或眼墙中发现的最大持续风速，仍然是一个重大的预测挑战。 目前的理论认为，低层入流的能量含量是影响强度的关键因素之一，但缺乏低层的观测数据来检验或完善理论论据。首席研究员将研究热带气旋强度对低层入流的能量含量变化的响应。Gabrielle（2001），and Humberto（2001）. 每个TC都是连续两天或两天以上用NOAA WP-3D飞机上部署的新的全球定位系统（GPS）探空仪进行采样的。 连续日采样使得流入能量的变化与TC强度的变化相关。 从这些探测仪、提供海面温度的机载一次性使用深海温度计和从飞机雷达获得的反射率场得出的热力学和动力学变量的垂直分布图的组合，是制作动力学和热力学变量风暴比例图和轨迹分析的基础。 轨迹分析用于确定当流入柱向眼壁移动时，在何处、何时以及获得或损失多少能量。 这些在柱体顶部和底部的通量，以及能量在柱体中的分布，对于飓风的增强和维持至关重要。 大尺度环境的变化将通过从NOAA湾流部署的GPS探测仪和数值模型分析进行评估。 确定什么样的变化发生在大规模的环境将允许的作用，在流入层的变化对TC强度被隔离，更广泛的影响，研究包括发展有效的和经济的抽样策略，以确定影响TC强度变化的因素，导致改进的强度预测，导致大量的安全和经济效益，以美国。 这项工作的教育效益包括培训研究生，特别是将妇女安置在该领域。 这项工作还加强了夏威夷大学和NOAA飓风研究部门之间的伙伴关系。 这项研究是美国天气研究计划的高度优先事项。

Tropical cyclone intensity, defined as the minimum sea level pressure or the maximum sustained winds found in the eyewall, remains a major forecasting challenge. Current theories identify the energy content of the low-level inflow to the eyewall as one of the key factors affecting intensity, but there is a dearth of observations in the low levels available to test or refine the theoretical arguments.The Principal Investigator will examine the response of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity to changes in the energy content of the low-level inflow to the eyewall for TCs Guillermo (1997), Gabrielle (2001), and Humberto (2001). Each TC was sampled on two or more consecutive days with the new Global Positioning System (GPS) sondes deployed from the NOAA WP-3D aircraft. Consecutive day sampling enables the correlation of changes in the inflow energy with changes in TC intensity. The combination of the vertical profiles of thermodynamic and kinematic variables derived from these sondes, airborne expendable bathythermographs that provide sea surface temperature, and reflectivity fields from the aircraft radars, are the basis for the production of storm scale maps of kinematic and thermodynamic variables and trajectory analyses. Trajectory analyses are used to determine where, when, and how much energy is acquired or lost as the inflow column moves toward the eyewall. These fluxes at the top and bottom of the column, and the disposition of the energy through the column, are critical for the intensification and maintenance of the hurricane. Variations in the larger scale environment will be assessed with GPS sondes deployed from the NOAA Gulfstream, and from numerical model analyses. Determining what changes occur in the large-scale environment will allow the role that changes in the inflow layer have on TC intensity to be isolated.The broader impacts of the research include the development of effective and economic sampling strategies to ascertain factors that affect TC intensity change, leading to improved forecasts of intensity that result in substantial safety and economic benefits to the United States. Educational benefits of the work include the training of graduate students, and in particular, the placement of women into the field. The work also enhances the partnership between the University of Hawaii and NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. This research is of high priority within the U.S. Weather Research Program.