A Test of Borehole Paleoclimatology as a Method to Quantify Radiative Climate Forcing

该奖项将测试从钻孔温度-深度（T-z）剖面重建的地表温度（GST）、地表气温（SAT）、土壤温度和太阳辐射之间的一致性。它将处理将人为温室气体强迫与自然辐射强迫分开的关键挑战。这一挑战是困难的，因为气象和多代理温度记录中的复合温度信号不能直接分解为辐射强迫分量。然而，由于地面和空气之间的辐射加热和热交换直接控制地表温度，因此，当太阳辐射、土壤和空气温度被记录时，跨越时间段的钻孔T-Z测量的时间序列将能够将存储在地面中的热能与这些量进行比较。如果可以在一个或二十年的尺度上识别能量储存，太阳辐射，GST，SAT和多代理温度数据之间的一致性，那么过去几个世纪这些数据的综合可能使我们能够分别确定气候变化的人为和自然强迫。本项目所需数据包括：（1）从20世纪70年代至今，加拿大和美国在古气候和热流研究中使用的钻孔中的新T-z测量，（2）来自美国历史气候学网络、高平原区域气候中心自动天气数据网络和加拿大环境部的气象数据，（3）在钻孔观测间隔期间，在选定的钻孔和气象地点，关于地表土地覆盖情况的直接和遥感数据。该项目解决了几个相关的问题：什么是GST，SAT，土壤温度和太阳辐射之间的一致性？井点和气候站的小气候变化是否影响温度趋势？如果获得了良好的相干性，在T-z测量之间的时间内，储存在地面上的热能和辐射强迫之间的相干性是否可以延伸到过去的几个世纪？最后，该奖项将有助于评估北美从中纬度到极地地区的气候变化幅度，以确定观察到的趋势是否支持大气环流模型的预测。这项研究是一个新兴的领域，在整合现代和古气候研究方面具有广泛的应用和重大的潜在科学回报。 本项目所需的数据包括：（1）从20世纪70年代至今，加拿大和美国在古气候和热流研究中使用的钻孔中的新T-z测量，（2）来自美国历史气候学网络、高平原区域气候中心自动天气数据网络和加拿大环境部的气象数据，（3）在钻孔观测间隔期内，在选定的钻孔和气象站点上，关于地表土地覆盖状况的直接和遥感数据。井点和气候站的小气候变化是否影响温度趋势？如果获得了良好的相干性，在T-z测量之间的时间内，储存在地面上的热能和辐射强迫之间的相干性是否可以延伸到过去的几个世纪？最后，该奖项将评估北美从中纬度到极地地区的气候变化幅度，以确定观察到的趋势是否支持大气环流模型的预测。这项研究是一个新兴的领域，在整合现代和古气候研究方面具有广泛的应用和重大的潜在科学回报。

This award will test coherence between ground surface temperatures (GST) reconstructed from borehole temperature - depth (T-z) profiles, surface air temperatures (SAT), soil temperatures, and solar radiation. It will address the critical challenge of separation of forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases from natural radiative forcing. This challenge is difficult because the composite temperature signal in the meteorological and multi-proxy temperature records cannot be directly resolved into radiative forcing components. However, since radiative heating and heat exchange between the ground and the air directly control the ground surface temperature, a time-series of borehole T-z measurements spanning time periods when solar radiation, soil, and air temperatures have been recorded will enable comparison of the thermal energy stored in the ground to these quantities. If coherence between energy storage, solar radiation, GST, SAT and multi-proxy temperature data can be discerned for a one or two decade scale, synthesis of these data over the past several centuries may enable us to separately determine the anthropogenic and natural forcing of climate change. The data required for this project include: (1) New T-z measurements in boreholes previously used in paleoclimate and heat flow research in Canada and the United States from the 1970's to the present, (2) Meteorological data from the US Historical Climatology Network, the Automated Weather Data Network of the High Plains Regional Climate Center, and Environment Canada, and (3) Direct and remotely sensed data on surface land cover conditions at selected borehole and meteorological sites for the periods between borehole observations. The project addresses several related questions: What is the coherence between the GST, SAT, soil temperatures and solar radiation? Have microclimate changes at borehole sites and climate stations affected temperature trends? If good coherence is obtained, can the coherence between thermal energy stored in the ground and radiative forcing during the time between T-z measurements be extended several centuries into the past? Finally, this award will help assess the magnitude of climate change in North America from middle latitudes to polar regions to determine if the trends observed support the predictions of general circulation models.This research is in a new and emerging field with broad application and significant potential scientific payoff in integrating modern day and paleo-climate research. The data required for this project include: (1) New T-z measurements in boreholes previously used in paleoclimate and heat flow research in Canada and the United States from the 1970's to the present, (2) Meteorological data from the US Historical Climatology Network, the Automated Weather Data Network of the High Plains Regional Climate Center, and Environment Canada, and (3) Direct and remotely sensed data on surface land cover conditions at selected borehole and meteorological sites for the periods between borehole observations.The project addresses four related questions: What is the coherence between the GST, SAT, soil temperatures and solar radiation? Have microclimate changes at borehole sites and climate stations affected temperature trends? If good coherence is obtained, can the coherence between thermal energy stored in the ground and radiative forcing during the time between T-z measurements be extended several centuries into the past? Finally, this award will assess the magnitude of climate change in North America from middle latitudes to polar regions to determine if the trends observed support the predictions of general circulation models.This research is in a new and emerging field with broad application and significant potential scientific payoff in integrating modern day and paleo-climate research.