Conference on Research in Income and Wealth: Measurement Issues in Economics - The Paths Ahead. Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches, September 2003, Washington, DC

近年来，不仅学术研究人员和经济政策分析人员，而且政府经济统计机构的专业经济学家都更加关注经济计量问题。这种关注在一定程度上要归功于联邦储备委员会主席艾伦·格林斯潘，他在1995年向参议院财政委员会表示，他认为美国消费者价格指数严重夸大了真实的价格通胀。博斯金委员会（Boskin Commission）证实了这一观点，该委员会得出的结论是，对CPI偏差的最佳估计约为每年1.1%，如此大的偏差将使联邦政府在随后的12年中损失约1万亿美元。威廉·诺德豪斯（William Nordhaus）等学术研究人员也对官方统计数据能否反映美国经济的真正活力表示怀疑。这一问题的部分原因是难以衡量产品质量方面的技术改进，而且正如格林斯潘主席1998年的讲话所指出的那样，难以估计经济中服务部门的产出：“实际上，公布的数据表明，一些服务生产行业的每小时产出水平在20多年来一直在下降。20多年来，这些行业的企业效率越来越低，这是完全不可信的。Zvi Griliches是努力提高经济统计质量的领导者，特别是在价格快乐和质量变化领域，以及在地区服务部门产出方面（正是他创造了“难以衡量”部门这一术语）。为了表彰他的贡献，收入和财富研究会议将于2003年9月19日至20日在华盛顿地区主办一次会议，由Ernst R. Berndt和Charles R.哈尔滕会议记录将集中于计量那些已证明特别具有挑战性的产出和投入的价格和数量的问题：过去未解决的问题，如服务部门产出的计量和估计资本存量和收入的问题;目前备受关注的问题，如消费物价指数和真实的产出统计中产品质量变化的处理;以及在与“新经济”有关的部门中界定产出和衡量价格的新问题。虽然每个问题都有其自身的特点，但其中许多问题都贯穿着一条共同的主线：所讨论的商品的性质究竟是什么？应该用什么单位来衡量？这些衡量问题不仅在智力上具有挑战性，而且正在取得进展，政策影响深远。研究所将继续其组织和出版涉及经济现象计量的研究成果的悠久传统。 与会者（演讲者，讨论者和与会者）将包括来自学术界，政府和私营部门的各种代表，他们从事经济数据的收集，解释和分析。 特别优先考虑那些以前在国家经济研究所/研究所和有关学术会议上没有太多接触的个人的参与。会议计划还将包括一份用户指南文件，描述最近发布的劳工统计局新的时间使用调查数据集。

In recent years much greater professional attention has come to be focused on issues in economic measurement, not only by academic researchers and economic policy analysts, but also by professional economists in government economic statistical agencies. This attention is due, in part, to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan, who indicated to the Senate Finance Committee in 1995 that he believed the U.S. consumer price index significantly overstated true price inflation. This belief was confirmed by the Boskin Commission, that concluded that the best estimate of the bias in the CPI was about 1.1% per year, and that a bias of this magnitude would cost the federal government around $1 trillion over the succeeding 12 years. Academic researchers like William Nordhaus also expressed skepticism that official statistics captured the true dynamism of the U.S. economy. This problem was attributed, in part, to the difficulty in measuring technological improvements in product quality, and, as Chairman Greenspan's 1998 remarks indicated, to persistent difficulty in estimating the output of the service sectors of the economy: "Indeed, the published data indicate that the level of output per hour in a number of service-producing industries has been falling for more than two decades. It is simply not credible that firms in these industries have been becoming less and less efficient for more than twenty years." Zvi Griliches was a leader in the effort to improve the quality of economic statistics, particularly in the field of price hedonics and quality change, and in area service sector output (it was he that coined the term "hard-to-measure" sectors in reference to services). In recognition of his contributions, the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth is sponsoring a conference in the Washington DC area, September 19-20, 2003, co-organized by Ernst R. Berndt and Charles R. Hulten. The proceedings will focus on the problems of measuring the price and quantities of those outputs and inputs that have proved particularly challenging: unresolved issues from past like the measurement of service sector output and the problem of estimating capital stocks and incomes; problems receiving much current attention such as the treatment of product quality change in the CPI and real output statistics; and emerging problems of defining output and measuring prices in sectors associated with the "New Economy". While each problem has its own peculiarities, a common thread runs through many of them: what, exactly, is the nature of the commodity in question and in what units should it be measured? Not only are these measurement issues intellectually challenging, but progress is being made, and the policy implications are profound. The CRIW will continue its long tradition of organizing and publishing results of research involving measurement of economic phenomena. Participants at the conference (presenters, discussants and attendees) will include diverse representatives from academia, government and the private sector who are engaged in the collection, interpretation and analysis of economic data. Special priority is being given to participation by individuals who previously have not had a great deal of exposure at NBER/CRIW and related academic conferences. The conference program will also include a user's guide paper describing the recent released BLS' s new time use survey data set.