Collaborative Research: Sustaining Cooperative Multinational Management of Marine Fisheries in the Face of Environmental Variability

这项合作研究的目标是解决在不稳定的气候环境中实现多国海洋渔业稳定和互利管理的问题。具体地说，这项研究将审查在环境不确定的情况下联合管理商业捕捞的跨界鱼类资源的其他体制安排的有效性和稳健性。该项目将重点关注预测不佳的海洋环境变化的破坏性影响，包括突然的气候变化，并将探讨提高可预测性的价值。众所周知，不协调的捕捞往往会导致过度捕捞和鱼类资源枯竭，造成破坏性的生物和经济影响。当鱼类资源跨越国家管辖范围，特别是进入公海的“全球公域”时，这也成为一个多国政治问题。在这方面，即使在稳定的海洋环境中，合作管理也难以实现和维持。当突然和意想不到的气候变化发生时，例如太平洋厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象的实例，这是加倍困难的。该项目的活动由几个相互关联的部分组成。由NCAR人员领导的经验组成部分将编制世界金枪鱼渔业多国管理机构的系统比较历史，强调将通过建模加以审查的具体问题和关键关系。以蒙大拿大学为中心的互补建模活动利用博弈论概念，并通过动态数学和基于计算机的分析来实现。“不完全信息多边鱼战模型”侧重于分散但协调管理的案例，其中气候制度的变化具有不对称的影响，各方在获取信息以及对风险的目标和态度方面存在差异。“多边渔业管理中的联盟形成和稳定性建模”部分将考察替代性多边治理安排的内部政治、民族国家从联合治理机构的进入和退出、机构内投票联盟的内生形成以及联盟之间的“溢出效应”。最后，在“综合阶段”，整个研究小组将检查每个实证案例研究的建模结果的含义，以便更好地理解历史模式，并评估备选的、可能更强大的合作管理安排。这里的目标是使这项工作更充分地与政策研究相关。

The goal of this collaborative research is to address the question of achieving stable and mutually beneficial management of multinational marine fisheries in an unstable climatic environment. Specifically the study will examine the effectiveness and robustness of alternative institutional arrangements for joint management of commercially harvested trans-boundary fish stocks in the presence of environmental uncertainty. The project will focus on the disruptive effects of poorly predicted oceanic environmental variability, including sudden climatic regime shifts, and will address the value of improved predictability. It is well known that uncoordinated fishing often will lead to over-harvesting and fish stock depletion, with destructive biological and economic implications. It becomes also a multinational political question when the fish stock ranges across national jurisdictional boundaries, and especially onto the "global common" of the high seas. In this context, cooperative management can be difficult to achieve and sustain, even in a stable oceanic environment. It is doubly difficult when sudden and unexpected climatic shifts occur, such as instances of the Pacific Ocean El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomena. The project's activities consist of several interrelated components. The empirical component, led by NCAR personnel, will produce a systematic comparative history of multinational management institutions for the world's tuna fisheries, highlighting specific issues and key relationships that are to be examined through the modeling. The complementary modeling activities, centered at the University of Montana, utilize game theoretic concepts, and are realized through dynamic mathematical and computer-based analysis. The "incomplete-information multilateral fish-war model" focuses on cases of decentralized but coordinated management, where the climatic regime shifts have asymmetric effects and the parties differ in their access to information and in their goals and attitudes toward risk. The component on "modeling coalition formation and stability in multilateral fisheries management" will examine the internal politics of alternative multilateral governance arrangements, the entry and exit of nation states from the joint governing body, the endogenous formation of voting coalitions within the body, and of "spillover effects" among coalitions. Finally, in an "integrative phase" the full research team will examine the implications of the modeling results for each empirical case study, both to better understand historical patterns and to evaluate alternative, potentially more robust, cooperative management arrangements. The goal here is to make this work more fully relevant to policy studies.