SBIR Phase I: Environmental Risk Management and Quantification Using Real Options

这项小型企业创新研究第一阶段项目旨在开发一种方法和工具，以评估环境受损物业的重建价值。本研究的目的是开发一种方法和软件来量化与重新开发此类属性相关的风险和成本。建议的项目包括：(i)识别和评估数据，以校准估值模型；（ii）开发一种比其他可用模型更准确地考虑不确定性和管理灵活性价值的估值模型；（iii）确定可支持该模型的市售产品；（iv）开发模型的工作原型，使用第一项任务收集的数据来检查原型的可行性。这些方法的应用代表了本研究的一个独特方面；这种方法反映了房地产估价研究的最新水平，预计拟议的项目将推动这一领域的最新水平。该项目提供了许多与环境受损物业重建相关的商业和社会效益。在美国，有成千上万的环境受损的房产，其中许多位于商业中心附近和重建目标地区。开发人员可以购买保险产品来减轻这种风险，但是目前可用的保险产品的成本并不是基于对真实风险的准确评估。利用这项研究的成果，开发商将能够更准确地量化他们对环境受损财产的投资价值，将能够更有竞争力地获得针对不可预见情况的保险，在遇到意外情况时制定更好的应急计划，并将能够确定拟议重建项目的关键管理决策点。在某些情况下，这项研究的成果还将使重新开发环境受损的财产比开发未开发的土地具有竞争优势。

This Small Business Innovative Research Phase I project is proposed for developing a methodology and tools for assessing the redevelopment value of environmentally impaired properties. The purpose of this research is to develop a methodology and software to quantify the risk and cost associated with redeveloping such properties. The proposed project involves: (i) identifying and evaluating data for calibrating a valuation model; (ii) developing a valuation model that accurately accounts for uncertainty and the value of management flexibility than other available models); (iii) identifying commercially available products that can support the model; and (iv) developing a working prototype of the model, using the data collected in the first task to check the viability of the prototype. The application of these methodologies represents a unique aspect of this research; this approach reflects the state-of-the-art in research of property valuation, and the proposed project is expected to advance the state-of-the-art in this field.The project offers numerous commercial and societal benefits related to redevelopment of environmentally impaired properties. There are tens of thousands of environmentally impaired properties in the United States, many of which are located near business centers and in areas targeted for redevelopment. Developers can purchase insurance products to mitigate some of this risk, but the costs of currently available insurance products are not based on an accurate evaluation of the true risk. Using the product of this research, developers will be able to more accurately quantify the value of their investment in an environmentally impaired property, will be able to more competitively obtain insurance against unforeseen circumstances, develop better contingency plans in the event that unexpected conditions are encountered, and will be able to identify key management decision points in a proposed redevelopment project. The product of this research will also provide, in some cases, a competitive advantage to redevelopment of environmentally impaired properties over development of undeveloped land.