DMUU: Workshops -- Climate Decision Making Under Uncertainty & Precautionary Principle in Climate Change Policy

该项目的目标是确定在充分反映气候变化不确定性方面的具体研究需要，并制定决策标准和分析工具，以便在面对这些不确定性的情况下作出决策，特别强调制定适应和缓解气候变化的对策。为此，将举办两次研讨会，从规范和积极两个角度讨论与气候变化有关的决策的一些重要方面。一个名为“不确定性下的决策”的讲习班将审查表示不确定性的替代方法和不确定性下决策的替代标准，从理论和经验两个角度加以考虑，包括经济学、心理学和风险沟通。讲习班的理论部分将汇集主要的经济理论家；讲习班的经验部分将侧重于不同时间和(或)空间尺度上的气候不确定性和水文不确定性背景下的不确定性表示和决策的替代标准的替代办法对决策者的意义及其实用性。第二期讲习班《气候变化政策中的预防原则》探讨了最近的经济研究对设计和气候变化政策不可逆转效应的性质和意义的影响。几乎所有现有的气候变化分析都是确定性的，而不是概率的，集中在平均温度和降水的变化上。然而，气候研究人员越来越认识到，需要对温度和降水的变化进行分析，其中一些变化可能会在短期内感受到。这些讲习班将进一步开发包含气候变异性和不确定性的决策分析工具，从而帮助公共和私人决策者处理面对气候变化的适应和缓解问题。这两个讲习班的会议记录将张贴在一个网站上，并将为同行评议的期刊编写手稿。这一发展奖作为2003财政年度人类和社会动力优先领域不确定性决策特别竞赛的一部分得到支持。

The goal of this project is to identify specific research needs with respect to the adequate representation of climate change uncertainties and the development of decision criteria and analytical tools for decision making in the face of these uncertainties, with particular emphasis on the formulation of adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change. This will be accomplished by organizing two workshops covering some important aspects of decision making in relation to climate change, viewed from both normative and positive perspectives. One workshop, Decision Making Under Uncertainty, will examine alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty and alternative criteria for decision making under uncertainty considered from a variety of perspectives, both theoretical and empirical, including economics, psychology, and risk communication. The theoretical section of the workshop will bring together leading economic theorists; the empirical section of the workshop will focus on the meaningfulness to decision makers of alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty and alternative criteria for decision making under uncertainty and their practicality in the context of the climate uncertainties and hydrology uncertainties at various different temporal and/or spatial scales. The second workshop, The Precautionary Principle in Climate Change Policy, explores the implications of recent economic research on the nature and significance of the irreversibility effect for the design and climate change policy.Almost all of the existing analyses of climate change are deterministic rather probabilistic in nature and concentrate on changes in mean temperature and precipitation. However, there is growing recognition among climate researchers of the need for analyses that account for changes in the variability of temperature and precipitation, some of which are likely to be felt in the near-term. These workshops will further the development of decision analytic tools that incorporate climate variability and uncertainty and therefore help public and private decision makers to address issues of adaptation and mitigation in the face of climate change. The proceedings of the two workshops will be posted on a web site and manuscripts will be prepared for peer-reviewed journals. This developmental award was supported as part of the Fiscal Year 2003 Human and Social Dynamics priority area special competition on Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU).