The Social Foundations of Global Conflict and Cooperation: Waves of Globalization and Global Elite Integration Since 1840

本研究考察了19世纪至21世纪全球化、全球精英整合、全球冲突与合作之间的关系。主要的研究问题是，在全球化浪潮和反弹时期，全球精英融合不断变化的社会基础在多大程度上促成了各种形式的全球冲突与合作，从而可以帮助我们预测未来的全球冲突。例如，以跨越种族、阶级、性别、国籍和文明的更广泛的社会基础为基础的更全面的全球精英，或许能够防止上一波去全球化浪潮中的那种混乱。相反，如果精英权力建立在日益狭窄、军事化的社会基础上，以及霸权衰落和全球化反弹时期典型的排他主义身份和公民身份的相关形式上，就会出现不稳定和冲突。我们将通过调查选定国家的最有权势的个人、家庭、公司、国家和国际组织，在10个目标年份：1840、1860、1880、1913、1929、1950、1970、1980、1995和2004年，分析和描绘出精英阶层的社会基础。我们将考察全球精英之间的联系，以确定他们联系的程度和强度以及他们不断变化的社会基础。我们将使用三个相互关联的研究设计。第一份报告分析了来自主要核心国家的精英子集；第二份报告是跨国家的，包括所有国家和地区，在这些国家和地区可以找到关于不平等形式的公民、政治和社会公民身份、按福利或战争福利国家分层或其他重要的政治、社会经济结构和联系方面的可比数据；第三份报告侧重于最大的区域和全球国际组织。利用结构方程建模、网络分析、地理信息系统绘图和比较历史分析相结合的方法，我们将评估全球化的社会基础、全球精英整合和全球冲突与合作之间的关系。这项研究的更广泛影响包括：项目数据库、项目网站上的动画全球地图和出版物将为学生、学者、非政府组织和公共政策制定者提供有价值的数据。关于全球化浪潮、全球精英融合及其不断变化的社会基础之间关系的项目数据将有助于促进平等、民主、包容形式的公民身份和全球合作的倡议。

This research studies the relationship among globalization, global elite integration, and global conflict and cooperation from the nineteenth to the twenty-first centuries. The main research question is the extent to which the changing social foundations of global elite integration contributed to the myriad forms of global conflict and cooperation during waves of globalization and periods of backlash, and can thus help us predict future global conflicts. For instance, a more thoroughly integrated global elite, based on broader social foundations cutting across lines of race, class, gender, nationality, and civilizations, may be able to prevent the kind of chaos that characterized the last wave of deglobalization. Conversely, instability and conflict can be expected if elite power rests on increasingly narrow, militarized social foundations and related forms of exclusivist identity and citizenship typical of periods of hegemonic decline and globalization backlash. We will analyze and delineate the social foundations of elites cross-nationally by investigating the most powerful individuals, families, firms, states and international organizations for selected countries in ten targeted years: 1840, 1860, 1880, 1913, 1929, 1950, 1970, 1980, 1995, and 2004. We will examine the links among global elites to determine the degree and strength of their connections and their changing social foundations. We will use three inter-related research designs. The first analyzes a subset of elites from key core countries; the second is cross-national and includes all countries and regions where comparable data on unequal forms of civil, political and social citizenship, stratified in welfare or warfare-welfare states, or other important aspects of political, socioeconomic structure and links can be found; the third focuses on the largest regional and global international organizations. Using a combination of structural equations modeling, network analysis, GIS mapping, and comparative historical analysis, we will assess the relationship among the social foundations of globalization, global elite integration, and global conflict and cooperation over time. The broader impacts of this research include the following: Project databases, animated global maps on the project web site, and publications will provide valuable data for students, scholars, NGOs and public policymakers. Project data on the relationship between waves of globalization, global elite integration and their changing social foundations will aid initiatives to promote equality, democracy, inclusive forms of citizenship and global cooperation.