Collaborative Research: College Choice and the Texas 10% Policy

这项研究调查了德克萨斯州高中生的大学选择，这些学生是在1996年霍普伍德案判决禁止平权行动后根据前10%的法律（H.B.588）制定计划和决定的[霍普伍德诉德克萨斯大学案，78 F.3d 932，944（第五巡回法庭）]。 尽管大多数关于百分比计划影响的研究都集中在使用行政记录的机构多样化上，但H. B. 588黑人和西班牙裔学生的申请和入学概率增加尚不清楚。 该项目将分析种族和民族的差异，在大学的选择使用定制的，统计上有代表性的调查德州高中毕业生和老年人谁使他们的大学计划在后平权行动，反歧视计划制度。 从大约14 K老年人和19 K大学生的基线调查中，随机子样本（N = 6 K和3 K，分别）将随着时间的推移而被跟踪-高中毕业后至少六年的老年人和至少通过他们的高年级的大学生。 统计分析将涉及大学选择过程的各个方面（申请，录取和入学），包括推迟决定，提前退学或转学行为。将特别关注前10%的法律和类排名对大学决策的影响。 在方法上，研究设计避免了固有的选择偏见的基础上入学的研究，描绘了全方位的中学后学校的选择，包括兼职入学和间歇性的参与，以及工作和军事的选择。该项目的更广泛的影响包括：实际上，分析将解决目前意识形态辩论的主题，例如来自最具竞争力的高中的高素质学生是否因为排名低于保证录取门槛而离开该州，或者学生是否转学高中以提高他们的排名。研究人员和政策制定者将对这项研究感兴趣，他们有兴趣将“学校效应”与影响学生成绩的其他因素分开。 最后，通过建立一项调查，了解高中生如何看待和应对前10%的法律，该研究将促进了解排名靠前的少数民族学生，百分比计划立法的预期受益者，是否利用他们的大学选择，以同样的程度作为非少数民族学生。

This research investigates college choice for Texas high school students who made their plans and decisions under the top 10 percent law (H.B.588) after affirmative action was judicially banned by the 1996 Hopwood decision [Hopwood v. University of Texas 78 F.3d 932, 944 (5th Cir.)]. Although most studies of the impact of percent plans focus on institutional diversification using administrative records, whether H.B. 588 increased application and matriculation probabilities of black and Hispanic students is unclear. This project will analyze racial and ethnic differences in college choice using a customized, statistically representative survey of Texas high school sophomores and seniors who made their college plans in the post-affirmative action, percent-plan regime. From the baseline surveys of approximately 14K seniors and 19K sophomores, random subsamples (N = 6K and 3K, respectively) will be followed over time--the seniors for at least six years post high school graduation and the sophomores at least through their senior year. The statistical analyses will address various facets of the college choice process (application, admission, and enrollment), including postponement decisions, and early withdrawal or transfer behavior. Special attention will be devoted to the influence of the top 10% law and class rank on college decision-making. Methodologically, the study design avoids the selection biases inherent in studies based on enrollees by portraying the full range of post-secondary school choices, including part-time enrollment and intermittent participation as well as work and military options. The project's broader impacts include: Practically, the analyses will address policy-relevant questions that currently are the subject of ideological debate, such as whether highly qualified students from the most competitive high schools are leaving the state because they rank below the guaranteed admission threshold, or whether students transfer high schools to improve their rank standing. The study will be of interest to researchers and policymakers interested in untangling "school effects" from other factors contributing to student outcomes. Finally, by building on a survey tailored to learn about how high school students perceive and respond to the top 10 percent law, the study will advance understanding of whether high ranked minority students, the intended beneficiaries of the percent plan legislation, take advantage of their college options to the same extent as nonminority students.