Presidential Donors' First Reactions to the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA): The 2004 Election Cycle

这项研究利用了一个独特的机会，以两名调查人员最近完成的一个项目为基础，这是一项对2000年总统捐赠者的调查。2002年两党竞选改革法案(BCRA)的通过极大地改变了联邦竞选资金条例。研究人员将把2004年的总统捐赠与2000年的捐赠进行比较，以考察总统捐赠者对新规定的反应。这种比较既包括对2000年项目的受访者的小组研究，也包括使用2004年总统选举中具有代表性的单独捐赠者样本对2000年项目的复制。这项研究的小组内容包括重新调查2,905名受访者，他们向2000年10位总统候选人中的一位捐款--9位筹款超过500万美元的候选人和拉尔夫·纳德。这些答复者已经从他们那里收集了相当大的数据集，其中包括2000个捐助者的随机抽样，按候选人和捐款数额分层。小组形式是必不可少的；它是评估谁重复捐款、谁不重复捐款以及衡量做出(不)捐款决定的动机的唯一途径。复制工作需要对2004年捐助者池中的6 000名成员进行随机抽样，这一点同样重要。一项新的横断面调查是研究BCRA如何在2004年改变捐赠者池的唯一途径。小组研究衡量个体捐赠者对BCRA的反应行为的变化；横断面复制衡量总体变化。调查人员将把他们收集的数据与联邦选举委员会提供的数据合并，这些数据描述了每个受访者的捐款、捐款金额、捐款日期和捐赠者的职业。这一结果将与已从2000年捐助者人才库收集的类似数据集进行比较。对BCRA规定的了解和从2000年捐助者库中收集的数据使审查这项法律的效果成为可能。该项目考察了三个主要问题：o BCRA如何影响捐赠的透明度？BCRA可能会使捐赠变得更加透明，因为它增加了硬通货的限制，减少了对软钱的开放途径。o BCRA对捐赠有什么影响？捐赠者会把更多的钱捐给更少的候选人(和组织)，还是他们会简单地增加他们的捐款总额？o BCRA如何影响捐赠者池中不同子集的行为(例如，共和党的捐赠者是否比民主党的捐赠者更多地利用提高的限额？那些不捐更多钱的人会不会在其他方面变得更加活跃，比如为竞选活动工作？)？更广泛的影响该项目对学术界和政策制定者都有好处。它在竞选资金监管的历史关键时刻提供了宝贵的数据。它还有助于培养下一代研究人员；它的位置、重点、范围和内容使其特别适合让研究生和大量本科生参与研究。

This research exploits a unique opportunity to build on a project two of the investigators recentlycompleted, a survey of presidential donors who gave in the 2000 cycle. The passage of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA) significantly altered federal campaign finance regulations. The researchers will compare presidential giving in 2004 to that in 2000 to examine how presidential donors respond to the new rules. This comparison involves both a panel study of respondents to the 2000 project and a replication of the 2000 project using a separate, representative sample of donors in the 2004 presidential election.The panel element of this study entails re-surveying 2,905 respondents who gave to one of 10presidential candidates in 2000 - the 9 candidates who raised over $5 million and Ralph Nader. These respondents, from whom a sizeable data set has already been collected, comprise a random sample of the 2000 donors, stratified by candidate and contribution size. The panel format is essential; it is the only way to assess who contributes repeatedly and who does not, and to measure the motives underlying the decision (not) to contribute. The replication, which entails surveying a random sample of 6,000 members of the 2004 donor pool, is equally important. A new cross-sectional survey is the only way to examine how the BCRA changes the donor pool in 2004. The panel study measures changes in behavior of individual donors in response to the BCRA; the cross-sectional replication measures aggregate change. The investigators will merge the data they collect with data - available from the Federal Election Commission - that describe the contributions that each respondent made, its amount, the date it was made, and the donor's occupation. The results will be compared to the analogous data set already collected from the 2000 donor pool. Knowledge of the BCRA's provisions and data collected from the 2000 donor pool make possible examination of this law's effects. The project examines three major questions:o How does the BCRA affect the transparency of giving? The BCRA will likely make givingmore transparent, as it increases hard-money limits and reduces the avenues open to soft money.o How does the BCRA affect giving? Will donors give larger amounts to fewer candidates (andorganizations), or will they simply increase the total amounts they give?o How does the BCRA affect the behaviors of different subsets of the donors pool (e.g. doRepublican donors take greater advantage of the raised limits than do Democrats? Do those whodo not give larger amounts become more active in other ways such as working for campaigns?)?Broader ImpactThe project benefits both the scholarly and the policy-making communities. It providesvaluable data at a critical juncture in the history of campaign finance regulation. It also helps to train the next generation of researchers; its location, focus, scope, and substance make it particularly suitable for involving both graduate and a large number of undergraduate students in research.