BE/CNH: Global Effects of Human and Terrestrial Interactions

由于受气候和大气组成的制约，人类系统和陆地系统在全球范围内的相互作用是复杂的。能源使用、农业实践和人口结构与人们改善福祉的愿望交织在一起，人们希望通过善意但有时是错误的政策来管理经济增长及其影响。这一跨学科研究项目的目标是通过农业和土地利用评估人类与陆地系统之间的基本相互作用，这两者都受到全球性力量的影响，并受到气候和大气组成的调节。将用于模拟这些相互作用的方法需要使用复杂但独立的人类活动模型、大气和海洋、陆地系统以及逐个部门的经济和人类影响模型。研究人员计划开发复杂的全球经济模型和复杂的陆地系统模型之间所需的动态联系，以评估这些成本以及大气成分和气候变化的潜在反馈。拟议的工作是将麻省理工学院排放预测和政策分析(EPPA)模型与陆地生态系统模型(TEM)联系起来，动态模拟环境变化驱动的作物生产力变化，以及农业贸易和农产品价格变化驱动的经济后果和土地利用变化。这项工作将利用这两个模式的现有能力，并需要进行一些额外的改进，以建立它们之间的联系。这主要涉及进一步分解EPPA的农业部门，并将经济数据与普渡大学全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)正在开发的关于实物土地使用的补充数据集联系起来。该项目还将涉及在瞬变电磁法中开发马赛克方法，以表示EPPA中所代表的区域和土地用途。这些进展将使模拟研究陆地系统、土地利用、经济、国际贸易和经济政策之间的动态联系，受气候和大气组成变化的影响，如二氧化碳和对流层臭氧水平的增加。该项目将首次尝试在全球范围内以完全耦合的模式研究陆地系统和经济之间的复杂相互作用。项目成果将有助于为旨在缓解不同环境和经济问题的政策提供信息，显示政策在哪里可以相辅相成，在哪里可能发生冲突。该项目得到了2004财年环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的一个奖项的支持，该竞赛的重点是自然和人类耦合系统的动态变化。

As moderated by climate and atmospheric composition, the global-scale interactions of human systems and terrestrial systems are complex. Energy use, agricultural practices, and demographics are entwined with the desire of people to improve their well-being and to manage economic growth and its effects through well-meaning but sometimes misdirected policies. The goal of this interdisciplinary research project is to evaluate fundamental interactions between human and terrestrial systems through agriculture and land use, both of which are impacted by forces that are global in nature and moderated by climate and atmospheric composition. The approach that will be used to model these interactions entails use of complex but separate models of human activity, the atmosphere and ocean, terrestrial systems, and sector-by-sector models of economic and human effects. The researchers plan to develop the dynamic linkages needed between a complex global model of the economy and a complex model of terrestrial systems to evaluate these costs and potential feedbacks of changes in atmospheric composition and climate. The proposed work is to link the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM) to dynamically simulate changes in crop productivity driven by environmental change and the economic consequences and changes in land use driven by changes in trade in agriculture and the price of agricultural goods. The work will take advantage of existing capabilities of the two models with some additional improvements needed to make the linkages between them. Principally, this involves further disaggregating the agricultural sector of EPPA and linking the economic data to a supplemental data set on physical land use being developed at the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) at Purdue University. The project also will involve the development of a mosaic approach in the TEM to represent the regions and land uses represented in EPPA. These developments will allow simulation studies of the dynamic linkages among terrestrial systems, land use, the economy, international trade, and economic policy as affected by such changes in climate and atmospheric composition as increasing levels of carbon dioxide and tropospheric ozone.This project will constitute a first attempt to study complex interactions between terrestrial systems and the economy in a fully coupled model at the global scale. Project results will help to inform policies designed to mitigate different environmental and economic problems, showing where policies may complement one another and where they may be in conflict. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2004 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.