Studies in Aggregate Analyses

提案ID：0319050 P I：Prescott，Edward C.组织：明尼苏达大学双城分校标题：聚合分析研究本项目支持两套与聚合分析相关的研究。第一组研究使用具有生产率和税率的宏观增长模型来分析一些重要问题。其中一项研究确定了主要富裕工业国家劳动力供应的差异在多大程度上是由不同的税率造成的。另一项研究涉及国际收入水平的演变，以说明某一时间点收入水平的差异。第三项研究与林文雄(Fumio Hayashi)共同研究战前日本经济。在二十世纪之交，日本凭借其受过高等教育的劳动力和一个强大的不干涉政策的政府，似乎准备赶上美国。这在第二次世界大战之前没有发生过，问题是为什么。林和普雷斯科特猜测的一项政策，在抑制这一时期的生产率增长并因此阻碍追赶方面发挥了重要作用，那就是保持农村地区过剩人口的政策。一项相关研究将解决这个问题：金融体系问题和生产率之间有什么联系？特别是，这项研究将确定生产率表现不佳与政府干预金融体系之间存在经验关联的原因是否在于，金融体系被用来补贴效率低下的生产单位，以保留这些单位的就业机会。第二组研究是与埃伦·麦格拉坦联合进行的，它涉及到使用宏观理论来研究股票价格和回报的行为。一项研究继续开发和应用一种新的方法，利用重叠的世代结构来确定股市是被高估还是被低估。该项目的第二项研究确定了家庭在1880-2002年期间以多样化程度较高的债务和股权资产的形式实现储蓄的平均回报。这些平均回报率将与实际资本回报率进行比较，实际资本回报率可以从国民收入账户中计算出来。这些回报是扣除税收和多元化成本后的净额。更广泛的影响：这项研究解决了许多重要的政策问题，例如，日本经济目前低迷的原因。开发的方法将有助于预测拟议中的美国减税和德国最近上调税率的后果。它还将有助于预测取消股息税对股市和人们按群退休时的消费的影响。它将为西欧国家提供指导，指导他们如何增加劳动力供应，更重要的是增加公民的福利。根据该项目开发的软件(MacroLab)供明尼苏达大学的本科生使用，并可通过互联网免费获得。

Prop ID: 0319050 P I: Prescott, Edward C. Organization: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities Title: Studies in Aggregate Analyses This project supports two sets of studies related to aggregate analyses. The first set of studies uses the macro growth model with productivity and tax rates to analyze some important problems. One of these studies determines how much of the differences in labor supply of the major rich industrial countries are accounted for by different tax rates. Another study deals with the evolution of international income levels to account for differences in income levels at a point in time. The third study, which is joint with Fumio Hayashi, examines the pre-war Japanese economy. At the turn of the twentieth century, Japan with its highly educated work force and a strong non-interventionist government seemed to be poised to catch up with the United States. This did not happen prior to World War II and the question is why. A policy that Hayashi and Prescott conjecture was important in suppressing productivity growth in this period, and therefore blocking catching up, was the policy of keeping excessive population in rural areas. A related study will address the question: what is the connection between financial system problems and productivity? In particular the study will determine if the reason for the empirical association between poor productivity performance and government intervention in the financial system is that the financial system is used to subsidize inefficient production units in order to preserve jobs at these units. The second set of studies, which is joint with Ellen McGrattan, is concerned with using macro theory to study the behavior of stock prices and returns. One study continues the development and application of a new methodology for determining whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued using an overlapping generation structure. The second study in this project determines the average returns that households realized on savings in the form of well-diversified debt and equity assets for the period 1880-2002. These average returns will be compared to the real return on capital, which can be computed from the national income accounts. These returns are net of tax and diversification-costs. Broader Impact : The research addresses a number of important policy issues, e.g., why the Japanese economy is currently depressed. The methodology developed will be useful in predicting the consequences of the proposed U.S. tax cut and the recent increase in tax rates in Germany. It also will be useful for forecasting the consequences of eliminating taxes on dividends for the stock market and for the consumption of people when retired by cohort. It will provide guidance to Western European countries as to how to increase their labor supplies and more importantly the welfare of their citizens. The software (Macrolab) developed under this project is used by undergraduates at the University of Minnesota and available over the internet without charge.