SGER BS&I: Accelerating Discovery of New Species in Madagascar Using Remotely Sensed Data and Ecological Niche Modeling

SGER BS&Ami：使用遥感数据和生态位模型加速马达加斯加新物种的发现克里斯托弗·拉克斯沃西和汤森·彼得森在新研究理念上的探索工作：-拉克斯沃西等人。(2003，自然，426,837-841)最近发表的结果表明，遥感数据(由卫星和航天飞机收集)和生态位建模可用于帮助识别有新物种的地区。分布模型被用来成功地预测马达加斯加变色龙物种的发生。但其中一些模型也产生了分布误差：它们过度预测了3个交叉区域的物种发生，实际上产生了7个科学上新的物种。这些新物种表现出的特征支持与最初作为分布建模目标的物种的密切关系，它们似乎分享了类似的生态位要求。这一新的结果表明，生态位建模为发现新物种提供了创新潜力，因此可以用于指导对最具潜力的地区的调查工作。这项提议的目标是使用更广泛的动物群体来测试生态位建模。这项工作既是探索性的，也是高风险的；这是首次尝试应用遥感数据和生态位建模来加速发现新物种。一个严重的紧迫性：-马达加斯加政府最近宣布在5年内将后备网络扩大三倍。由于保护区以外的原始森林迅速丧失，这种增长幅度是前所未有的，而且不太可能再次发生。虽然已经提出了保护区计划的主要内容(ANGAP，2001)，但生物学家目前仍有很小的机会提出额外的建议。在保护区规划的关键未来两年内，发现具有未受保护新物种的重要区域，将对最终的保护区网络设计产生深远影响。主要目标：-1)为至少200种两栖动物、爬行动物和小型哺乳动物建立生态位模型，2)确定潜在过度预测的交叉区域并选择要调查的地点，3)调查地点并迅速收集数据以识别/诊断新物种，4)向马达加斯加政府传播关于未受保护的区域特有物种的结果，以及5)将这些新物种的发现与盲目选择模型结果的调查地点进行比较，评估生态位模型对加速物种发现的作用。广泛的影响：-调查将产生重要的凭证样本(包括组织)，扩大AMNH与塔那那利佛大学之间的国际合作，包括地理信息系统和遥感，至少有四名来自美国和马达加斯加的博士生参与和培训，并为AMNH正在开发的关于分布建模的网络国际教学模块提供数据。创新的生物地理观点有望对马达加斯加未来保护区的建立产生深远影响。智力价值和项目意义：-这些结果和结论有可能从根本上改进生物学家和自然资源保护者选择调查地点的方式，以记录新的物种多样性。确认生态位建模识别未知特有区域的能力将是一项重大进步，并为在全球范围内加速物种发现提供了令人兴奋的潜力。由此产生的明显好处将包括更具包容性和及时性的保护计划，以及为生态和进化研究提供更多生物多样性。

SGER BS&I: Accelerating discovery of new species in Madagascar using remotely sensed data and ecological niche modelingChristopher Raxworthy and Townsend PetersonExploratory Work on a New Research Idea:- Raxworthy et al. (2003, Nature 426, 837-841) recently published results suggesting that remotely sensed data (collected by satellites and the Space Shuttle) and ecological niche modeling can be used to help identify areas with new species. Distribution modeling was used to successfully predict chameleon species occurrences in Madagascar. But some of these models also produced distribution error: they over-predicted occurrences of species in 3 intersecting areas, which actually yielded 7 species new to science. These new species exhibit characters supporting close relationships to the species originally targeted for distribution modeling, and they appear to share similar niche requirements. This novel result suggests ecological niche modeling offers innovative potential for the discovery of new species and thus can be used to direct survey efforts to areas of greatest potential. The objective of this proposal is to test ecological niche modeling using a broader range of animal groups. This work both is exploratory and high risk; this is the first attempt to apply remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling to accelerating the discovery of new species. A Severe Urgency:- The Malagasy Government has recently announced a three-fold expansion of the reserve network within 5 years. This magnitude of increase is unprecedented, and unlikely to ever be repeated again owing to the rapid loss of primary forest outside reserves. Although major elements of the reserve program have been proposed (ANGAP, 2001), a small window of opportunity currently exists for biologists to propose additional recommendations. Discovery of important areas with unprotected new species, during the critical next two years of reserve planning, would have a profound influence on the final reserve network design.Major objectives:- 1) Produce ecological niche models for at least 200 species of amphibians, reptiles, and small mammals, 2) identify intersecting areas of potential over-prediction and select sites to be surveyed, 3) survey sites and rapidly work up collections to identify/diagnose new species, 4) disseminate results concerning unprotected regional endemism to the Malagasy Government, and 5) compare these new species discoveries against surveyed sites selected blind to model results, to evaluate the utility of ecological niche modeling for accelerating species discovery.Broader Impacts:- Surveys will produce important voucher specimens (including tissues), broaden international collaboration between AMNH and the University of Antananarivo to include GIS and remote sensing, involve the participation and training of at least four PhD students from the USA and Madagascar, and provide data for a web-based international teaching module on distribution modeling being developed at AMNH. Innovative biogeographic perspectives are expected to have a profound influence on the establishment of future reserves in Madagascar.Intellectual Merit and Project Significance:- The results and conclusions have the potential to radically improve the way biologists and conservationists select survey sites to document new species diversity. Confirming the ability of ecological niche modeling to identify areas of unknown endemism would represent a major advance, and offers exciting potential for accelerating species discovery on a global scale. Obvious resulting benefits would include more inclusive and timely conservation programs, and the availability of greater biodiversity for ecological and evolutionary research.