Synoptic-Dynamic Studies of Atmospheric Predictability

在这项研究中，研究人员将从现象学的角度来解决大气可预报性和预报技巧的问题。 可预测性将根据业务全球数值天气预报模式预测高影响天气系统演变的能力进行分析和解释，这些系统所嵌入的大规模流动，以及与选定天气系统演变相关的大规模流动系统之间的过渡。 在高分辨率集合预报的样本中，将诊断两种类型的相互作用的案例研究：热带-热带外相互作用和北极-热带外相互作用。 特别是，这项研究将解决集合预报系统中集合成员的不同演变的物理方面。 两名研究生将参与该项目。 这项研究的结果预计将转化为改进的长期展望和短期预报的高影响的天气事件，从而有利于业务预报和社会活动。

In this study, the investigators will address the problem of atmospheric predictability and forecast skill from a phenomenological perspective. Predictability will be analyzed and interpreted in terms of the ability of operational global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the evolution of high-impact weather systems, the large-scale flows in which these are embedded, and the transitions between large-scale flow systems that occur in conjunction with the evolution of selected weather systems. In samples taken from high-resolution ensemble forecasts, case studies for two types of interactions will be diagnosed: tropical-extratropical interactions and arctic-extratropical interactions. In particular, this research will address the physical aspects of the different evolution of ensemble members in the ensemble forecast system. Two graduate students will be involved in this project. The results of this research are expected to translate into improved long-term outlooks and short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events, thereby benefiting operational forecasting and societal activities.