Collaborative:MSPA-CSE: Analysis and Detection of Transient Dynamics in Ecological Systems

生态学理论中的许多传统方法都是基于自然生态系统回归稳定状态的范式。因此，传统的方法来解决环境问题，利用大量的数学和统计技术来分析这些系统。然而，这些方法有明显的局限性。正如生态学家强调长期实验产生的结果不同于短期实验一样，理论需要考虑时间尺度的作用，而不仅仅是强调稳定性。在这一提议的背景下，PI将开发数学和统计工具，以了解生态系统中瞬态动态（与稳定性相关的动态相反）的作用。 这项研究将有助于我们对真实的生态系统的基本了解，并改进旧的方法，开辟新的环境管理方法。为了科普人类可能对生态系统产生的往往是突然和巨大的影响，人们越来越感兴趣的是，随着管理人员的学习和生态系统受到新的冲击的困扰，管理战略也会发生变化。然而，实施适应性管理需要更深入地了解系统的短期、观察到的动态如何产生最终决定可持续性的长期模式。学生还将接受重要的跨学科培训。

Many of the traditional approaches in ecological theory are based on the paradigm that natural ecosystems return to stable states. Thus, traditional approaches to environmental problems draw on the large body of mathematical and statistical techniques for analyzing such systems. These approaches, however, have clear limitations. Just as ecologists emphasize that long-term experiments yield different results from short-term experiments, theory needs to take the role of time scales into account, and look beyond an emphasis on stability. In the context of this proposal, the PI's will develop the mathematical and statistical tools to understand the role of transient dynamics (as opposed to dynamics connected with stability) in ecological systems. This study will both aid our basic understanding of real ecological systems, and refine old and open up new approaches to environmental management. To cope with the often sudden and large impacts that humans can have on ecosystems, there is growing interest in management strategies that change as managers learn and as an ecosystem is beset by new shocks. Implementing adaptive management, however, requires a far more sophisticated understanding of how short-term, observed dynamics of a system generate long-term patterns that ultimately determine sustainability. Students will also receive important interdisciplinary training.