Migration and Ethnoreligious Hate Crime in the Russian Federation: Risk Profiles 2000-2010

智力优势。人口变化与种族暴力之间的关系一直是社会科学的基本研究问题之一，也是尚未在比较背景下进行系统研究的问题。本调查研究的重点是俄罗斯，自20世纪90年代末以来，种族宗教仇恨犯罪已成为日益突出的社会问题。研究人员研究了导致暴力的人口、社会经济和政策背景，如光头党骚乱和挥舞棍棒的暴徒的街头袭击;火炬游行和对清真寺和犹太教堂的袭击;谋杀和殴打外国居民和外交官;亵渎犹太人墓地和鞭打哥萨克团伙恐吓中国商人。俄罗斯专家对这些事件的解释唤起了著名的社会科学理论，这些理论强调反叛的青年亚文化、快速的社会变革、偏见和政治上的“暴力正常化”。然而，这些因素无法解释俄罗斯各省、市、县仇恨犯罪率的地区差异。针对经验和理论知识方面的重要差距，目前的研究首次模拟和测试了移民和人口趋势对俄罗斯联邦种族宗教暴力和种族间敌对行为的综合影响。该研究探讨了新的假设，来自适应俄罗斯的背景下的多原因的“捍卫邻里”模型的仇恨犯罪和反移民的敌意的安全困境模型。通过估计俄罗斯的政治和社会背景下的人口变化的影响，特别是移民涌入种族同质的地区和移民与威胁领土完整的协会的调查有助于研究心理学，社会学和政治学的暴力。为了实现这些目标，研究人员（1）整合分散在人权组织，政府机构和媒体报告中的数据，以提供俄罗斯88个组成地区和共和国以及2，416个城市，城镇和县中约100个样本的民族宗教仇恨犯罪多年趋势的第一个全景概述;（2）根据向政府统计机构报告的人口普查数据和居住记录，建立一个关于1989年至2002年俄罗斯移民率和民族构成变化的新数据集;（3）在俄罗斯联邦各地人口趋势不同的地区进行基于多阶段概率抽样的民意调查（700名受访者）以及克拉斯诺达尔和Primorskii省（每个调查对象700人）;（4）构建和评估种族宗教仇恨犯罪和好战敌对行为的新措施的一致性;（5）评估种族平衡变化对这些措施的影响; 1989-2002年移民率与1989年种族同质性之间的相互作用;与移民群体有关的领土威胁;区域毗连/隔离，同时控制宏观经济条件、移民政策和公民活动;（6）在保持2000-2004年趋势不变的情况下，对2005-2010年俄罗斯联邦88个组成地区和一个较小地区样本的民族宗教暴力风险进行建模，通过操纵公共政策的变量，预测最好和最坏的情况;（7）通过比较Primorskii和克拉斯诺达尔拟议调查的描述性统计、多元回归和路径分析结果，评估人口趋势、政治竞选和地方政策对种族间敌意的影响，以及通过比较拟议的Primorskii调查结果和PI在2000年进行的Primorskii民意调查（N= 1，010），作为俄罗斯中国移民项目的一部分。更广泛的影响。该项目旨在通过宣传公共政策和公民活动，以及在任何面临种族宗教仇恨犯罪挑战的社会中改善人的安全，产生更广泛的影响。与以往的研究相比，该研究考察了移民政策、执法和公民活动对仇恨犯罪的影响，包括地区驱逐法、居住要求（propiska）的影响;仇恨犯罪起诉的频率;政府对少数民族和族裔间公民协会和活动的支持（例如，种族社团和节日）;以及人权组织的密度。这些发现，特别是风险评估方法，将通过美国和俄罗斯的学术期刊、会议论文、智囊团备忘录和媒体传播。研究人员将使用人种学观察，访谈和焦点小组与俄罗斯高，中，低风险社区的地方官员，公民活动家和普通居民一起研究风险概况的可靠性和上下文相关性。风险评估模型将使美国、俄罗斯和其他地方的社会受益，帮助非政府组织和政府机构更有效地引导稀缺资源;选择仇恨犯罪监测和公共干预运动的需求可能比表面上更迫切的地方;制定长期人口战略，包括少数民族的定居和融合。该项目将在圣地亚哥州立大学和莫斯科卡内基中心地理政治研究中心、俄罗斯科学院地理研究所、俄罗斯人权监测小组和俄罗斯科学院远东分支之间建立新的国际研究伙伴关系。它将加强SDSU的比较政治学和研究方法的课程设置，其中约40%的学生来自代表性不足的群体。

Intellectual Merit. The relationship between demographic change and ethnic violence has been one of the basic research questions in social sciences and the one that has not been studied systematically in comparative settings. This investigation study focuses on Russia where ethnoreligious hate crime has been an increasingly prominent social problem since the late 1990s. The researchers examine demographic, socioeconomic, and policy contexts that give rise to violence such as skinhead riots and street raids by chain-and-rod wielding toughs; torchlight marches and attacks on mosques and synagogues; murders and beatings of foreign residents and diplomats; desecration of Jewish cemeteries and intimidation of Chinese traders by whip-cracking Cossack gangs. Explanations of these events by Russian experts have evoked well-known social science theories emphasizing rebellious youth subculture, rapid social change, prejudice, and political "normalization of violence." These factors, however, fail to explain regional variation in hate crime rates across Russia's provinces, cities, and counties over time. Addressing important gaps in empirical and theoretical knowledge, the current study for the first time models and tests the combined effects of migration and demographic trends on ethnoreligious violence and militant interethnic hostility in the Russian Federation. The study examines new hypotheses derived from an adaptation to the Russian context of the multicausal "defended neighborhood" model of hate crime and the security dilemma model of anti-migrant hostility. By estimating the effects of demographic change in Russia's political and social context-particularly the influx of migrants into ethnically homogenous areas and association of migrants with threats to territorial integrity-the investigation contributes to research on violence in psychology, sociology, and political science. To achieve these goals, the researchers (1) consolidate the data scattered in reports of human rights groups, government agencies, and the media, to provide the first panoramic overview of multi-year trends in ethnoreligious hate crime in Russia's 88 constituent regions and republics and in a sample of approximately 100 of its 2,416 cities, towns, and counties; (2) create a new dataset on migration rates and ethnic composition change in Russia from 1989 to 2002 based on the census data and residency records reported to government statistical agencies; (3) conduct opinion surveys based on multistage probability sampling in areas with varying demographic trends across the Russian Federation (700 respondents) and within the provinces of Krasnodar and Primorskii (700 respondents each); (4) construct and evaluate the consistency of new measures of ethnoreligious hate crime and the militant hostility; (5) assess the impact on these measures of ethnic balance shifts; the interaction between 1989-2002 migration rate and ethnic homogeneity in 1989; territorial threat associated with migrant groups; and regional contiguity/isolation, while controlling for macroeconomic conditions, migration policy, and civic activism; (6) model the risk of ethnoreligious violence for 88 constituent regions of the Russian Federation and a sample of smaller areas in 2005-2010 holding the 2000-2004 trends constant, projecting best- and worst-case scenarios by manipulating the variables responsive to public policy; (7) assess the effects of demographic trends, political campaigning, and local policies on interethnic hostility by comparing descriptive statistics, multiple regression, and path analysis results from the proposed surveys in Primorskii and Krasnodar, as well as by comparing the results of the proposed Primorskii survey and the 2000 Primorskii poll (N=1,010) conducted by the PI as part of the project on Chinese migration in the Russia. Broader Impacts. The project is designed to have broader impacts through informing public policy and civic activism, and improving human security in any society facing the challenges of ethnoreligious hate crime. More than previous research, the study examines the impact of migration policy, law enforcement, and civic activism on hate crime, including the effects of regional deportation laws, residency requirements (propiska); frequency of hate crime prosecution; government support for minority and interethnic civic associations and activities (e.g., ethnic societies and festivals); and the density of human rights organizations. The findings-and, in particular, risk-assessment methodology-will be disseminated through academic journals, conference papers, think-tank memos, and the media in the United States and Russia. Researchers will examine the reliability and contextual relevance of the risk profiles first-hand using ethnographic observations, interviews, and focus groups with local officials, civic activists, and ordinary residents in high-, medium-, and low-risk neighborhoods in Russia. The risk assessment model will benefit societies in the United States, Russia, and elsewhere by helping NGOs and government agencies to channel scarce resources more efficiently; to select locations where the needs for hate crime monitoring and public intervention campaigns may be more acute than they appear; and to map out long-term demographic strategies, including settlement and integration of minorities. The project will establish new international research partnerships between San Diego State University and the Center for Geographic-Political Research of the Moscow Carnegie Center, the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAN), Russian human rights' monitoring groups and the Far Eastern Branch of RAN. It will enhance course offerings in comparative politics and research methodology at SDSU, where approximately 40% of students come from underrepresented groups.