COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Predicting the Effects of Environmental Change and Host Diversity on the Dynamics of Insect-vectored Generalist Pathogens

人类引起的环境变化和疾病动力学之间的相互作用是本世纪科学家面临的最紧迫、最缺乏了解的问题之一。媒介传播的病原体，如西尼罗河病毒、疟疾和登革热，均由蚊子携带，或由蚜虫携带的大豆花叶病毒和大麦黄矮病，是新出现的人类、植物和动物疾病的主要原因，尤其令人担忧。该项目将发展媒介传播病原体的一般理论，并使用大麦黄矮病病毒作为模型系统来测试该理论，大麦黄矮病病毒是世界上最重要的经济作物疾病之一。这些实验将在加利福尼亚州的草原上进行。该项目将测试环境的变化(水分和氮素的有效性)如何与植物物种多样性和组成的变化相互作用，以改变蚜虫的行为，从而控制病原体的传播。一般的数学理论将允许我们使用一个单一的框架来预测人类活动对各种动植物宿主及其病原体的影响。这项研究具有科学和社会意义，特别是在媒介传播病原体对人类健康和农业经济的威胁日益增加的情况下。它将提供关于病原体、生物多样性和群落结构之间相互作用的一般理解。

Interactions between human-induced environmental change and disease dynamics are one of the most pressing and poorly understood issues facing scientists this century. Vector-transmitted pathogens such as West Nile virus, malaria, and dengue fever, all carried by mosquitoes, or soybean mosaic virus and barley yellow dwarf virus carried by aphids are of particular concern as leading causes of emerging human, plant, and animal diseases. This project will develop a general theory of vector-transmitted pathogens and test that theory using as a model system barley yellow dwarf virus, one of the most economically important diseases of grass crops worldwide. The experiments will be carried out in grasslands in California . The project will test how changes in the environment (moisture and nitrogen availability) interact with changes in plant species diversity and composition to alter aphid behavior, thereby controlling pathogen transmission. The general mathematical theory will allow us to predict the effects of human activity on a variety of plant and animal hosts and their pathogens using a single framework. This study is of both scientific and societal significance, particularly as threats from vector transmitted pathogens to both human health and the agricultural economy increase. It will provide a general understanding about the interactions between pathogens, biodiversity, and community structure.