Forecasting Needs and Procedures for NEON: Process-based Modeling Workshop in July 2005 at the Marine Biological Lab in Woods Hole, MA

将举办一次研讨会，将模型师和基于过程的生态学家聚集在一起，探讨生态、经济和社会学建模在发展作出生态预测的能力方面的作用。基于过程的数学模型是在区域到大陆范围内开发有效预报的关键步骤。目前尚不清楚目前的模型是否能够容易地适应这些更大的规模。与会者将探讨从国家生态观测网(NEON)等国家观测网开发动态生态预报所需的环境/生态建模能力和组织。预期的智力影响将来自对合作和有力地应对生态预测挑战的机会的讨论，特别是当它涉及现有模型的优势和劣势时。讲习班将提供一个前所未有的机会，评估当前的建模能力以及将当前的生态建模能力转化为对霓虹灯等环境观测站有用的“基于生态的”生态预测模型所需的条件。研讨会将产生广泛的影响，就生态建模的现状以及需要什么来确保未来几代模型师和预报员能够利用环境研究观测系统和网络将产生的新前沿、研究机会和独特的基础设施能力提出一系列建议。此外，由此产生的报告将就发展生态预测能力的模型和模型器的规划、资金、实施、协调和最终使用提供指导。

A workshop will be held to bring together modelers and process-based ecologists to explore the role of ecological, economic, and sociological modeling in developing a capacity to make ecological forecasts. Process-based mathematical models are a key step in developing effective forecasts at regional to continental scales. It is unclear that current models can be readily adapted to these larger scales. The participants will explore the environmental/ecological modeling capacity and organization necessary to develop dynamical ecological forecasting from national observatory networks such as the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The anticipated intellectual impact will come from discussions of the opportunities to collaboratively and robustly address ecological forecasting challenges, particularly as it relates to the strengths and weaknesses of existing models. The workshop will provide an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate current modeling capacity and what is needed to transform current ecological modeling capabilities into "ecologically-based" ecological forecast models useful for environmental observatories such as NEON. The workshop will have broad impacts by defining a set of recommendations on the status of ecological modeling and what is needed to assure future generations of modelers and forecasters that can leverage the emergent frontiers, research opportunities, and unique infrastructure capacity that will arise from the environmental research observing systems and networks. In addition, the resulting reports will provide guidance on the planning, funding, implementation, coordination, and ultimate use of models and modelers to develop an ecological forecasting capacity.