Rapid Decompression of Pressurized Magma and Laterally-Directed Blasts: Determining Required Initial Conditions and Predicting Hazards Using 3D Multi-Phase Numerical Simulations

学术价值：横向喷发是有记录以来最危险的火山事件之一，可能造成大面积的完全破坏。爆炸目前被包括在现代危险评估和合成火山地图中，包括胡德山、雷尼尔山和其他美国喀斯喀特山脉火山，对大量人口有潜在影响。然而，这类事件很少被详细研究和观察到。定向爆炸在火山学中是一个重要的谜，仍然存在一些关键问题，包括：1)是什么原因导致它们横向定向？2)是什么控制了它们的大小？3)当地地形如何影响周边人群的灾害？拟议的工作将回答有关迄今为止记录最充分的两个事件的具体问题（Soufriere Hills火山，Montserrat, 1997 - SHV; Mount St. Helens, 1980 - MSH），并使用真实火山事件和数值模型之间的比较来获得对爆炸行为的一般理解。在未来，爆炸性喷发的三维数值模型将成为预测火山行为和做出更准确的危害评估的重要工具。更广泛的影响：该项目承诺在定量计算火山学方面教育年轻的研究生，使他或她为地球科学日益数字化的未来做好准备。这项工作将促进富有成效的，持续的美国/欧洲科学合作，并将使美国团队与世界领先的数值模拟技术合作。

Intellectual Merit: Laterally-directed blasts are some of the most dangerous volcanic events ever documented, with large areas of complete devastation possible. Blasts are currently included in modern hazard assessments and maps at composite volcanoes, including Mt. Hood, Mt. Rainier and other US Cascades Range volcanoes, with potential impacts on large populations. However, few such events have been studied and observed in detail. The directed blast is a significant enigma in volcanology, with key questions remaining, including 1) What causes them to be laterally directed? 2) What controls their size? 3) How does local topography affect hazards to surrounding populations? The proposed work will answer specific questions about the two best-documented events to date (Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, 1997 - SHV; Mount St. Helens, 1980 - MSH) and use comparisons between real volcanic events and numerical models to gain a generalized understanding of blast behavior. In the future, 3D numerical models of explosive eruptions will be important tools for predicting volcanic behavior and making more accurate hazards assessments. Broader Inpacts: This project promises to educate a young graduate student in quantitative, computational volcanology, preparing him or her for the increasingly numerical future of Earth science. The work will foster a productive, continuing US/European scientific collaboration, and will enable the US team to collaborate with a world-leader in numerical modeling technology.