Campaign Strategy and Impact in Mexico and Brazil

这项调查研究了新民主国家竞选信息的性质和影响，并在以前未研究的背景下生成了一个新的竞选信息数据集。首席调查员对竞选信息进行记录和编码，并收集2006年巴西和墨西哥总统、州长和立法机构选举中选民参与和学习情况的数据。由此产生的数据集用于检查消极和积极竞选活动的影响和动机。具体来说，研究人员展示了选民学习、投票率和候选人选择如何受到竞选语气的影响，以及候选人消极的动机在正式和非正式机构中是如何变化的。生成的数据集对许多其他研究问题也有实用价值，并将发布到公共领域。该项目利用与美国、巴西和墨西哥大学的伙伴关系，以最低的成本完成数据收集工作。该项目提高了对新兴民主国家政治运动战略和影响的理解。这种理解之所以特别重要，有三个原因。第一，新民主国家的政治运动实际上比巩固民主国家的政治运动更为重要。在新兴国家，低党派性和低信息水平意味着，许多选民在参加竞选时，预先存在的承诺和观念有限。他们收到的竞选信息以及他们对这些信息的反应影响了更多的选民，比老牌民主国家的选民影响更大。其次，本项目有助于概括对竞选策略和影响的理解，从美国的两党、一员选区背景到具有替代选举制度的多党制。虽然仅限于两个国家，但该项目将收集五种不同选举制度的竞选信息，这些制度涉及的候选人少则两名，多则数百名，既有传统的，也有现代的选举环境。这种差异与本提案中的几个具体假设有关，但也增加了未来学者使用这些资源的可能性。第三，这个项目对巴西和墨西哥来说都是一个独特而重要的时刻。这两个国家都面临着对政府信任度下降的问题，而竞选信息的内容和性质可能会进一步削弱信任，也可能会通过开放、民主的进程重振信任。更广泛的价值：该研究为美国和拉丁美洲的学生提供了研究机会，并由代表性不足的群体大量参与。研究者创建一个数据库，供其他对该主题感兴趣的学者使用。

This investigation studies the nature and impact of campaign messages in new democracies, and generates a new dataset of campaign messages in a previously unstudied context. The Principal Investigator records and codescampaign messages and collects data on voter participation and learning from Brazil and Mexico's Presidential, Gubernatorial, and Legislative elections in 2006. The resulting dataset is used to examine the impact of, and the incentives for, negative and positive campaigning. Specifically, the researcher demonstrates how voter learning, turnout, and candidate choice are affected by campaigns tone, as well as how incentives for candidatesto go negative vary across formal and informal institutions. The resultingdataset also has utility for many other research questions and will be released into the public domain. The project leverages partnerships with universities in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico to accomplish this data-collection effort at minimal cost.This project enhances understanding of political campaignstrategy and impact in emerging democracies. Such understanding is especially important for three reasons. First, political campaigns in new democracies are in fact more important than campaigns in consolidated democracies. In emerging countries, low partisanship and low information levels mean that much of the electorate enters campaigns with limited pre-existing commitments and conceptions. The campaign information they receive and their response to it affects more voters, more dramatically than in established democracies. Second, this project helps generalize understandings of campaign strategy and impact from the US' two-party,single-member district context, to multiparty systems with alternative electoral systems.Though limited to two countries, the project will capture campaign messages from five different electoral systems involving as few as two or as many as hundreds of candidates for office, in both traditional and modern electoral environments. This variation is related to several specific hypotheses in this proposal, but also multiplies possibilities for future scholars using these resources. Third, this project comes at a unique and important moment for both Brazil and Mexico. Both countries face declining trust in government and the content and nature of campaign messages may further weaken trust or reinvigorate it through an open, democratic process. Broader Value: The study provides research opportunities for students in both the United States and Latin America, with substantial participation by underrepresented groups. The investigator creates a database that may be used by other scholars interested in the topic.