Correctly Interpreting Near-Miss Events for Hurricanes

正确解释飓风中的未遂事件美国各地的人们都经历过自然灾害的未遂事件，但第二年却面临着同样的威胁。当下一次重大灾难发生时，人们不禁要问，为什么决策者没有把以前的侥幸作为警告信号，并为未来的事件做更多的准备。本研究探讨了近距离失误事件，以及对过去某些结果发生的原因的解释如何影响未来的决策。这项研究从理论上证明，决策者不是把前兆事件当作警告，而是在有了近乎失误的信息后，往往会做出反映更多而不是更少风险行为的决定。此外，他们往往不寻求可能改善未来决策的额外信息。决策和风险分析方面的教育和培训应能减少侥幸偏误。本研究测试这些假设与交互式飓风模拟。这项研究将具体记录在哪里以及为什么近距离失误信息影响决策，以及近距离失误偏差如何被夸大或衰减的决策背景的特点。将开发和测试个人，组织和社区决策的理论模型，这些模型可以作为制定规范性定量风险框架的基础，以改变和改善决策过程。

AbstractCMS-0555805 (Dillon-Merrill)Correctly Interpreting Near-Miss Events in HurricanesPeople throughout the United States experience near-misses from natural disasters only to be confronted by the same threats the next year. When the next major catastrophe does occur, questions arise as to why the decision makers did not heed the prior near-misses as warning signs and do more to prepare for future events. This research examines how near-miss events, and the interpretations of why certain past outcomes occurred influence future decisions. This research theorizes that rather than heeding precursor events as warnings, decision makers with near-miss information often make decisions that reflect more, not less, risky behavior. Moreover, they often do not seek additional information that might improve future decision making. Education and training in decision and risk analysis should attenuate the near-miss bias. This research tests these hypotheses with an interactive hurricane simulation. This research will document specifically where and why near-miss information influences decision making, as well as how the near-miss bias may be exaggerated or attenuated by characteristics of the decision context. Theoretical models for individual, organizational, and community decision making will be developed and tested that can be used as a basis for developing prescriptive quantitative risk frameworks to alter and improve the decision making process.