Collaborative Proposal: SGER: Social Measures of the Katrina Aftermath

拟议的工作将在新奥尔良进行多阶段的家庭地址集群抽样，并辅以电话银行调查。 目标是到2006年5月收集500份答卷。 调查问卷将询问撤离的决定，生存经验，人口统计数据，人们在飓风之前，期间和之后不同时间点的需求。 这项调查是由Edd豪瑟设计的，在实地使用之前，将在北卡罗来纳大学夏洛特分校和杜克分校的难民中进行试点。 初稿正在由杜克机构审查委员会进行初步审查，并将根据他们的反馈进行修改。 分析的第一部分将总结调查数据，并提供交叉表格，显示不同的生存经历与年龄，宠物所有权，收入等的关系。 这是标准的统计分析，但将有助于确定哪些方面在紧急情况的不同阶段发挥了主导作用。 分析的第二部分将使社交网络模型与数据相匹配，扩展了之前关于人们需要的帮助类型以及他们从谁那里获得帮助的数学模型的工作。 社交网络模型中的节点是人或机构，网络中的边描述了所需的帮助类型。 这项研究将由大卫银行，埃德豪瑟和约翰勒凡特（与玛丽亚Sirois合作）联合进行。 大卫班克斯和约翰勒凡特负责调查设计和数据分析。 国土安全和重大灾害管理区域中心负责人埃德豪瑟负责问卷设计。 Maria Sirois是杜兰大学公共卫生和热带医学学院生物统计学的研究生;她和John Lefante负责数据收集。 玛丽亚·西罗伊斯是国民警卫队、路易斯安那州搜救队的成员，也是一名合格的急救人员。 拟议研究的知识价值是双重的。 首先，它将提供一个统计分析的因素影响的生存经验的人在新奥尔良之前，期间和之后卡特里娜飓风。 其次，它将通过使用新的潜在空间模型和从卡特里娜飓风事件中获得的数据，扩展以前的灾害响应研究中应用的社交网络模型。 拟议研究的更广泛影响是，它将为未来的救灾工作提供指导和见解，并强调在响应的各个阶段最有效/最不有效的人与机构之间的互动。

The proposed work will undertake a multistage cluster sample of household addresses in New Orleans, supplemented by a phone banks survey. The goal is to collect 500 respondents by May 2006. The survey questionnaire will ask about the decision to evacuate, survival experiences, demographic data, the kinds of needs that people had a different timepoints before, during, and after the hurricane. The survey has been designed by Edd Hauser, and will be piloted on refugees at UNC-Charlotte and Duke before used in the field. The first draft is under preliminary review by Duke Institutional Review Board, and will be modified according to their feedback. The first part of the analysis will summarize the survey data, and provide cross-tabulations that show how different survival experiences are associated with age, pet ownership, income, and so forth. This is standard statistical analysis, but will help identify which aspects played dominant roles at different phases of the emergency. The second part of the analysis will fit a social network model to the data, extending previous work on mathematical models for the kinds of help people need and from whom they get help. The nodes in the social network model will be people or agencies, and the edges in the network describe the kind of help that is required. The research will be conducted jointly by David Banks, Edd Hauser, and John Lefante (working with Maria Sirois). David Banks and John Lefante are in charge of the survey design and data analysis. Edd Hauser, head of the Regional Center for Homeland Security and Major Disaster Management, is in charge of questionnaire design. Maria Sirois is a graduate student in Biostatistics in the School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine at Tulane; she and John Lefante are in charge of data collection. Maria Sirois is a member of the National Guard, the Louisiana Search and Rescue Team, and a certified first-responder. The intellectual merit of the proposed research is twofold. First it will provide a statistical analysis of the factors affecting the survival experience of people in New Orleans before, during and after Katrina. Second, it will extend the social networks models applied in previous studies of disaster response by using the new class of latent space models and the data obtained from the Katrina event. The broader impact of the proposed research is that it will provide guidance and insight for future disaster relief efforts, and highlight the interactions between people and agencies that were most/least effective at various stages of the response.