Modelling spatial dynamics of vascular epiphytes(MODVE): modelling demography and spatial-temporal dynamics of vascular epiphytes, aiming their incorporation into forest dynamics' models.

尽管生态预测的呼声越来越高，特别是由于环境的变化，维管附生植物在生态模型中基本上被忽视了。我们知识上的这种差距可能部分是由于研究附生习性所固有的困难，这使得大多数调查耗时、不准确和/或不完整。幸运的是，最近的研究项目已经收集了足够的数据，试图将维管附生植物纳入生态建模和预测。巴拿马的一个长期监测项目提供了一个独特的数据集，适合对附生植物种群的空间和时间高质量数据进行建模的需求。与这个数据集相结合，现有的热带森林动态模型(模型FORMIND)提供了一个合适的模拟背景。森林模型和维管附生植物数据集的结合最终可能使维管附生植物纳入预测，并有可能检验假说，向经验学家提供反馈，以收集缺乏的数据，并支持适当的保护行动。因此，本项目旨在模拟附生植物的时空变化，包括人口动力学。由此产生的模型将在理论和保护生态学方面具有重要的应用，以解决重要问题：“维管附生植物在空间和时间上如何变化，这种变化在多大程度上与非生物变化或森林动态变化有关？”以及“附生植物如何以及在多大程度上能够对环境变化做出反应？”

Despite increasing urge for ecological forecasts, especially due to environmental change, vascular epiphytes have been largely neglected in ecological modelling. This gap in our knowledge may be partially due to the difficulties inherent to investigating the epiphytic habit, which makes most surveys time-consuming, inaccurate and/or incomplete. Fortunately, recent research projects have gathered enough data to attempt the inclusion of vascular epiphytes into ecological modelling and forecasts. A long-term monitoring project in Panama offers a unique dataset that suits modelling demands for spatial and temporal high-quality data on epiphytic populations. Allied to this dataset, available models for the dynamics of tropical forest (model FORMIND) deliver a suitable simulation background. The combination of both forest models and vascular epiphyte datasets might ultimately enable the inclusion of vascular epiphytes into forecasts and the possibility to test hypothesis, to provide feedback to empiricists for collection of lacking data and to support appropriate conservation actions. Therefore, the present project aims to model the spatial-temporal variation of epiphytes, including demographic dynamics. The resulting models will have important applications to both theoretical and conservation ecology addressing important issues: “How do vascular epiphytes vary in space and time and to what extent is this variation related to abiotic changes or changes in forest dynamics?” and “How and to what extent are epiphytes able to react to environmental change?”.