Collaborative Research: Designing Unemployment Insurance

本研究将实证与经济学理论相结合，对失业保险制度的优化设计进行研究。实证研究表明，失业工人找到工作的概率取决于她失业的时间长短（以下简称：持续时间依赖）。经济研究发现，长期失业者尤其不太可能找到工作有两个原因：失业工人在失业期间失去了技能；而那些达到长期失业水平的人，在他们最初失去工作的时候，平均来说，可能是相对缺乏技能的。然而，现有的关于最优失业保险的文献通常没有考虑到这些特征。主要研究者的初步研究表明，失业风险率的持续时间依赖性对失业保险的设计至关重要。在失业期间，失业补贴应该减少还是增加，取决于长期失业者不太可能找到工作的确切原因。本课题通过建立和模拟一个与经验证据相匹配的期限依赖模型来研究失业保险制度的优化设计。该项目还探索了新的数据来源，以研究持续时间依赖及其原因。更广泛的影响：本项目将在多个方面产生更广泛的影响。首先，美国的失业保险体系庞大。根据美国劳工部的数据，2005年约有800万工人领取了福利，各州和联邦政府为此花费了约310亿美元。在许多其他国家，特别是在欧洲大陆，失业保险制度按人均计算高出数倍。因此，一个设计合理的制度可以通过减少税收或提高失业补贴的效率来显著改善大量家庭的福利。该项目可能会对其他社会保险项目产生影响，包括社会保障、残疾保险、医疗保险和医疗补助。第三，本项目整合了经济学各个领域的方法和经验证据，包括公共财政、劳动经济学、宏观经济学和激励理论。第四，主要研究人员将使用研究生研究助理来帮助这个项目的各个方面，在这个过程中训练那些研究生。最后，这个项目将通过科学论文以及在会议、大学研讨会和课程上的发言，广泛传播所产生的研究成果，从而提高学术研究的质量和论述。

This project combines empirical evidence and economic theory to study the optimal design of unemployment insurance. Empirical studies have shown that the probability that an unemployed worker finds a job depends on how long she has been unemployed (hereafter: duration dependence). Economic research recognizes two reasons why, in particular, the long-term unemployed are less likely to find jobs: unemployed workers lose skills during unemployment; and those that reach long-term unemployment may have been, on average, relatively unskilled when they originally lost their job. However, the existing literature on optimal unemployment insurance does not typically take these features into account. The principal investigators' preliminary research indicates that duration dependence in the hazard rate of finding a job is critical for the design of unemployment insurance. Whether unemployment subsidies should decrease or increase during an unemployment spell depends on the exact reason why the long-term unemployed are less likely to find jobs. This project studies the optimal design of the unemployment insurance schedule by creating and simulating a model that matches empirical evidence on duration dependence. The project also explores new data sources to study duration dependence and its causes.Broader Impact: This project will have a broader impact along a number of dimensions. First, the U.S. unemployment insurance system is large. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, in 2005 some 8 million workers received benefits, costing states and the federal government about $31 billion. In many other countries, particularly in continental Europe, the unemployment insurance system is several times larger on a per capita basis. Thus, a properly designed system may significantly improve the welfare of a great number of households, either by reducing taxes or improving the efficiency of unemployment subsidies. This project may have implications for other social insurance programs, including Social Security, Disability Insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid. Third, this project integrates methods and empirical evidence from a variety of fields in economics, including public finance, labor economics, macroeconomics, and incentive theory. Fourth, the principal investigators will use graduate research assistants to help with all aspects of this project, in the process training those graduate students. Finally, this project will improve the quality and discourse of academic study by the broad dissemination of the resulting research, through scientific papers, as well as in presentations at conferences, university seminars and courses.