CNH: Coupling Hydrologic, Economic, and Social Network Models to Improve Understanding of Surface Water-Groundwater Interactions for Protection of Instream Flows

在世界许多地区，农业用水、城市用水和环境用水共用同一水源。近年来，水资源冲突的一个主要来源是，从与河流和溪流相连的地区越来越多地开采地下水，导致溪流流量的减少。河流流量减少的影响包括鱼类和候鸟栖息地的减少，河流和河岸带形态和栖息地的变化，以及大坝和水库运行、娱乐和下游利用的可用水量的减少。虽然水文学家长期以来对地下水-地表水交换的物理方面进行了实地研究，但对复杂地表水-地下水系统的自然和人为成分之间的反馈作用知之甚少，这些反馈是不确定的，空间可变的，可能包括非线性和阈值行为。研究地表水-地下水系统的两个地点是伊利诺斯州的坎卡基河流域和内布拉斯加州和堪萨斯州的共和河流域，了解人类和自然成分之间复杂的相互作用对有效的政策设计至关重要。由于抽取地下水，这两个地区的河流流量都减少了，这引起了决策者的关注。然而，这两个盆地在经济、制度、管理历史、利益相关者冲突和当前政策方面存在巨大差异。本跨学科研究项目的目标是：(1)量化地表水-地下水耦合系统中参数、模型和行为不确定性的经济和社会影响；(2)评价水文过程、个体和社会群体行为的时空变异性如何影响地表水-地下水系统的政策设计和决策后果；(3)分析决策过程对制定社会可接受的地表水-地下水管理政策的影响；(4)制定有效和社会可接受的政策来管理地表水-地下水系统，以保持溪流水流。本研究采用的方法包括数值贝叶斯模型、空间优化、随机多智能体系统、计量经济分析、社会网络分析、地理信息系统和先进的可视化技术。该研究将解决基本的水文和社会经济问题，同时还将为K-12和研究生提供培训和学习活动，并为当地和国际利益相关者提供推广活动。这项研究将在自然系统模型的开发和校准方面取得重大进展，这些模型将整合自然过程和人类行为之间的反馈和不确定性。从本研究中得到的改进的科学模型将促进政策设计，以维持或改善河流环境条件，同时改善经济前景并最大限度地减少利益相关者冲突的可能性。通过评估模拟模型中的备选政策框架，研究者将提供关于如何改善水资源管理和减少两个研究领域的利益相关者冲突的实用信息。在世界上许多地表水-地下水耦合系统是冲突根源的地方，研究结果也将引起普遍的兴趣。该项目得到了美国国家科学基金会关于自然和人类系统耦合动力学竞赛的奖励。

In many regions of the world, agricultural, urban, and environmental water users share the same sources of water. In recent years, a major source of water conflict has been the increased extraction of groundwater from areas that are physically connected to rivers and streams with a resulting loss of instream flows. The impacts of decreased instream flows include reduction of habitat for fish and migratory birds, changes in stream and riparian zone form and habitat, and decreases in water availability for dam and reservoir operation, recreation, and downstream uses. Although hydrologists have long conducted field studies of the physical aspects of groundwater-surface water exchange, little is known about the feedbacks operating between natural and human components of complex surface water-groundwater systems, which are uncertain, spatially variable, and may include nonlinear and threshold behavior. Two sites for studying surface water-groundwater systems where an understanding of the complex interactions between human and natural components is critical to effective policy design are the Kankakee River Basin in Illinois and the Republican River Basin in Nebraska and Kansas. As a result of groundwater pumping, both areas have experienced reduced stream flows that are of concern to policymakers. The two basins differ dramatically in terms of economics, institutions, history of management, stakeholder conflict, and current policies, however. The objectives of this interdisciplinary research project are (1) to quantify the economic and social impacts of parameter, model, and behavioral uncertainty in coupled surface water-groundwater systems; (2) to evaluate how spatial and temporal variability in hydrologic processes, individual and social group behavior can affect policy design and decision consequences in surface water-groundwater systems; (3) to analyze the impacts of decision making processes on the development of socially acceptable surface water-groundwater management policies; and (4) to develop efficient and socially acceptable policies to manage surface water-groundwater systems in order to maintain instream water flows. Methods to be used by the investigators in this study include numerical Bayesian modeling, spatial optimization, a stochastic multi-agent system, econometric analysis, social network analysis, geographical information systems, and advanced visualization techniques. The research will address fundamental hydrologic and socioeconomic questions while also integrating training and learning activities for K-12 and graduate students and outreach activities for local and international stakeholders.This research will provide significant advances in the development and calibration of natural system models that integrate feedbacks between and uncertainty in natural processes and human behavior. The improved scientific models derived from this research will advance policy design that maintains or improves instream environmental conditions while improving economic prospects and minimizing the potential for stakeholder conflict. By evaluating alternative policy frameworks in the simulation model, the investigators will provide practical information regarding how to improve water resource management and reduce stakeholder conflict in the two study areas. Research findings also will be of general interest in many parts of the world where coupled surface water-groundwater systems are the source of conflict. This project is supported by an award resulting from the NSF competition focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.