COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Reaching Sustainability Under Uncertainty: A Methodological Study on Modeling and Decision-Making

刘海伦皮拉玛大学CBET-0731066黄银伦，皮尔韦恩州立大学CBET-0730383COLBORATIVE研究：在不确定性下实现可持续性：建模和决策的方法论研究这个项目解决了一个关键问题，在面临不确定性的情况下为可持续工业发展做出决策。该项目将(I)对可持续工程中常见的不确定性进行分类和表征，(Ii)分析和评估三种处理严重不确定性的方法的适用性：信息差距方法、概率界限分析方法和模糊逻辑方法，(Iii)制定处理建模、分析和决策中的不确定性的一般指南，(Iv)开发一种新的不确定性下的多目标优化方法，以及(Iv)通过研究一些工业过程和大型工业生态系统来检验该指南和方法。将使用基于石化和汽车行业的两个案例研究来验证这些方法。这项工作的更广泛影响包括开发工具，以便为可持续工业发展作出强有力的决定。这些发展应有助于丰富用于建模和决策的知识库，并有助于处理各种类型的工程问题以及解决某些社会科学问题。结果将被纳入研究生和本科课程的工作中。将建立一个在线论坛，帮助传播成果。研究生将参与这两个机构的工作，拉马尔大学的本科生将参与其中。

Lou, Helen PILamar UniversityCBET-0731066Huang, Yinlun, PIWayne State UniversityCBET-0730383COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: REACHING SUSTAINABILITY UNDER UNCERTAINTY: A METHODOLOGICAL STUDY ON MODELING AND DECISION-MAKINGThis project addresses a key problem, making decisions for sustainable industrial development in the face of uncertainty. The project will (i) classify and characterize uncertainties that are commonly encountered in sustainable engineering, (ii) analyze and assess the applicability of three types of approaches to handling severe uncertainty: the information gap approach, the probability bounds analysis approach, and the fuzzy logic approach, (iii) develop a general guideline for handling uncertainties in modeling, analysis, and decision making, (iv) develop a novel methodology for multi-objective optimization under uncertainty, and (iv) test the guideline and the methodology through studying a number of industrial processes as well as large-scale industrial ecosystems. Two case studies based on the petrochemical and automotive industries will be used to verify the methodologies. The broader impacts of this work include developing tools that will allow robust decisions for sustainable industrial development. The developments should contribute to the enrichment of the knowledge base for modeling and decision-making and be useful for handling a variety of types of engineering problems as well as for addressing certain social science issues. Results will be incorporated in graduate and undergraduate course work. An on-line forum will be created to help disseminate results. Graduate students will be involved in the work at both institutions and undergraduate students from Lamar University will participate.