IPY: Impact of High-Latitude Climate Change on Ecosystem Services and Society

北极系统正在经历前所未有的变化，其中许多变化是全球变暖趋势在高纬度地区被放大的后果。由于生物物理和文化原因，北极的变化在地区上是不同的。生态系统服务是社会从生态系统中获得的利益，是这些环境变化、生态影响及其对社会的后果之间的关键联系。拟议研究的目标是：(1)记录北极和北方森林生态系统服务的现状和趋势，(2)预测这些服务的未来趋势，以及(3)评估改变的生态系统服务的社会后果。这项研究的学术价值来自几个来源，包括：(1)在从单个社区到泛北极的范围内对一整套生态系统服务的现状和趋势进行定性评估，(2)对阿拉斯加社区最关心的生态系统服务的历史和可能的未来趋势提供量化的区域评估，大大提高预测气候变化对阿拉斯加社区和政策制定者的社会后果的能力，(3)阿拉斯加社区参与研究的设计、实施和使用，以确保研究从一开始就直接满足利益攸关方的需求，(4)与其他研究小组建立网络，以分享研究成果，作为该计划的一个组成部分，以及(5)与其他北极国家的类似研究计划合作，以实现对生态系统服务现状和趋势的泛北极综合。更广泛的影响包括：(1)将土著社区纳入研究团队(而不是作为研究结果的被动接受者)，增强当地社区了解适应气候变化的当前和未来选择的能力，(2)传播可立即用于社区和机构制定政策的研究产品，作为这一进程的组成部分，(3)对阿拉斯加土著进行博士、本科和高中培训，以开展关于气候变化的生态和社会后果的研究，(4)直接解决大多数全球变化研究中缺失的关键一环--对原因、后果、以及社会最关心的那些生态系统服务的未来可能轨迹，以及(5)留下空间上明确的生态系统服务数据和地图的时间序列及其未来可能趋势的遗产。这项研究致力于国际地球年/理解环境变化，因为它侧重于：(1)了解气候变化、生态系统和社会之间的关系，包括在多个空间尺度上控制这些关系的机制；(2)了解环境变化和生态系统服务之间的关系及其在极地地区的社会经济后果；(3)发起具有跨学科性质的新倡议，留下数据遗产，并促进公众的参与；以及(4)利用LTER和Aon站点并建立国际合作。

The Arctic System is undergoing unprecedented changes, many of which are consequences of global warming trends that are amplified at high latitudes. Arctic change is regionally variable for both biophysical and cultural reasons. Ecosystem services, which are the benefits that society derives from ecosystems, are the critical links between these environmental changes, ecological impacts, and their consequences for society. The goals of the proposed research are to: (1) document the current status and trends in ecosystem services in the arctic and boreal forest, (2) project future trends in these services, and (3) assess the societal consequences of altered ecosystem services. The intellectual merit of this research derives from several sources, including: (1) provision of a qualitative assessment of status and trends in a comprehensive suite of ecosystem services at scales ranging from individual communities to the pan-arctic, (2) provision of a quantitative regional assessment of historical and likely future trends of those ecosystem services that are of greatest concern to Alaskan communities, substantially enhancing the capacity to predict the societal consequences of climate change for Alaskan communities and policy makers, (3) involvement of Alaskan communities in the design, implementation, and use of research to ensure from the outset that the research directly meets stakeholder needs, (4) networking with other research groups to share research results as an integral component of the program, and (5) collaboration with similar research programs in other arctic nations to achieve a pan-arctic synthesis of status and trends in ecosystem services. The broader impacts include: (1) inclusion of indigenous communities as integral components of the research team (rather than as passive recipients of research results), empowering local communities to understand present and future options for adaptation to climate change, (2) communication of research products that are immediately useful for policy formulation by communities and agencies as an integral component of the process, (3) training of Alaska Natives at PhD, undergraduate, and high-school levels to conduct research on the ecological and societal consequences of climate change, (4) directly addressing critical a missing link in most global change research - quantitative assessment of causes, consequences, and likely future trajectories of those ecosystem services that are of greatest concern to society, and (5) leaving a legacy of spatially explicit time series of data and maps of ecosystem services and their likely future trends. The research addresses IPY/understanding environmental change because it focuses on: (1) understanding relationships among climate changes, ecosystems and society, including mechanisms that control these relationships at multiple spatial scales, (2) understanding relationships among environmental change and ecosystem services and their socio-economic consequences in polar regions, (3) launching new initiatives that are interdisciplinary in nature, leave a data legacy, and eng gage the public, and (4) using LTER and AON sites and building on international collaborations.