International Research Fellowship Program: Identifying Maintenance Populations of a Multihost Pathogen: Canine Distemper in Serengeti Carnivores

0804186Craft国际研究奖学金计划使美国科学家和工程师能够在国外进行9到24个月的研究。 该计划的奖项为联合研究提供了机会，并利用国外独特或互补的设施，专业知识和实验条件。该奖项将支持Meggan Craft博士与英国格拉斯哥大学的丹尼尔海顿博士合作进行为期24个月的研究。大多数新兴传染病感染多种宿主物种。尽管如此，很少有人知道的机制，保持一个多宿主系统中的通用病毒病原体。 针对这一重要缺陷，本研究通过开发和分析基于最近收集的实地调查数据的多宿主模型，解决了与多宿主病原体和突发疾病动态相关的问题。 该项目的目标是使用数学模型来检验关于犬瘟热病毒（CDV）等多宿主病原体如何在多个宿主社区中维持和持续存在的假设。(In 1994年，CDV杀死了三分之一的塞伦盖蒂狮子，与当地非洲野狗的灭绝有关，继续杀死家养狗，并且仍然在生态系统中传播。塞伦盖蒂食肉动物疾病传播的空间、年龄结构、多宿主模型将解决四个具体问题：哪些物种构成CDV的维持群落，CDV在各种非维持物种中的持续时间是多少？我们能描述感染的时空模式吗？与另一种病原体的混合感染如何影响持久性？狗接种疫苗如何影响野生动物种群中的CDV动态？在这个生态系统中，什么样的控制策略在野生和家养食肉动物中是可行的？研究塞伦盖蒂食肉动物中病原体维持和循环的基本生态学将为食肉动物的保护和人类生计提供实际应用。 该项目中开发的理论模型不仅有助于理解塞伦盖蒂的疾病动力学，而且还提供了具体的管理建议。 由此产生的模型和根据经验数据估算参数的相关方法将提供可应用于其他生态系统的工具。 现实生活中的保护行动的理论方法将使未来的疾病计划更有效，在一个新出现的疾病不断增加的时代，这是一个急需的战略。 可行的多宿主病原体模型对于了解如何管理紧急和重新出现的疾病威胁至关重要。最重要的是，开发更有效的疾病控制计划将对全球人类和动物健康具有潜在的应用价值。

0804186CraftThe International Research Fellowship Program enables U.S. scientists and engineers to conduct nine to twenty-four months of research abroad. The program's awards provide opportunities for joint research, and the use of unique or complementary facilities, expertise and experimental conditions abroad.This award will support a twenty-four month research fellowship by Dr. Meggan Craft to work with Dr. Daniel Haydon at the University of Glasgow in the UK.The majority of emerging infectious diseases infect multiple host species. Despite this, little is known about the mechanisms that maintain a generalist viral pathogen in a multi-host system. In response to this important deficiency, this research addresses questions relating to the dynamics of multi-host pathogens and emergent diseases by developing and analyzing a multi-host model parameterized with data based on recently collected fieldwork. The objective of this project is to use mathematical models to examine hypotheses about how a multi-host pathogen like canine distemper virus (CDV) is maintained and persists in multiple host communities. (In 1994 CDV killed a third of Serengeti lions, was implicated in the local extinction of the African wild dog, continues to kill domestic dogs, and still circulates in the ecosystem.) A spatial, age-structured, multi-host model of disease transmission among Serengeti carnivores will address four specific questions: Which species comprise the maintenance community for CDV and what is the persistence time of CDV in the various non-maintenance species?; Can we characterize the spatiotemporal pattern of infection?; How might co-infection with another pathogen affect persistence?; How does dog vaccination influence CDV dynamics in wildlife populations? What control strategies in wild and domestic carnivores are feasible in this ecosystem? Studying the basic ecology of pathogen maintenance and circulation among Serengeti carnivores will provide practical applications to the conservation of carnivores and human livelihoods. The theoretical model developed in this project will not only contribute to the understanding of disease dynamics in the Serengeti but also provide specific management recommendations. The resultant models and associated methods for estimating the parameters from empirical data will provide tools that could be applied to other ecosystems. Theoretical approaches to real-life conservation actions will make future disease programs more effective, a much-needed strategy in an era of increasing emerging diseases. Viable multi-host pathogen models are critical to understanding how to manage emergent and re-emergent disease threats. Most importantly, developing more effective disease control programs will have potential applications to human and animal health worldwide.