Collaborative Research: Copepods in a Warming Climate: A Pan-Regional Model of Arctic and Northwest Atlantic Systems

GLOBEC的目标是了解决定气候变化如何影响海洋动物丰度的潜在生物-物理相互作用。GLOBEC方法侧重于目标物种的个体和种群动态。本研究将通过研究气候对物理和生物过程的影响来解决PRS的主要主题，以综合理解流域和全球尺度的气候变化如何影响控制局部和全区域尺度生物群落的物理过程。研究人员将使用RFP中建议的方法，包括通过连接和比较NWA和北冰洋区域来建立全区域物理生物模型。作为GLOBEC西北大西洋（NWA）项目的一部分，他们开发了一个三维生物物理模型来研究气候强迫边界条件对缅因州乔治湾地区浮游生物和优势桡足动物物种动态的影响。另外，他们还开发了一个新的北冰洋（AO）地区的3D模型，并用它来研究优势桡足类物种的运输。到目前为止，这两个模型还没有相互连接。在这项泛区域研究中，研究人员将结合这些模型来研究全球变暖情景下这两个系统之间的联系。他们将研究一系列假设，以解决这些地区的优势桡足类物种种群在未来变暖条件下如何相互作用。具体来说，他们将结合现有的丰度和临界速率数据，使用组合模型来研究北极融化可能如何影响整个北极-北大西洋泛区域范围内桡足类物种的分布和丰度。提出的工作包括四个步骤：1)通过一个新的全球模型网格合并NWA和AO的物理模型，将其下层食物网模型（NPZD）扩展到泛区域域，以生成现在和未来（2050年）的环境条件。2)利用这些模拟的环境条件和关键物种的生活史来确定它们在区域内和跨区域的人口增长潜力；3)使用基于个体的模型（IBM）来参数化关键物种，以检查运输和行为对人口增长的影响以及由此产生的泛区域分布模式。4)为一种普通桡足动物建立一个新的进化IBM，以确定在现有和未来（温暖）条件下跨区域的最佳生活史特征选择。这项详细的、面向过程的、泛区域的建模研究将为确定全球变暖如何影响关键海洋浮游动物物种种群的生物-物理机制提供新的见解，这些物种在海洋食物网中占据中心位置。由此产生的模型将为理解泛区域相互作用如何控制优势海洋物种的生态学和生物地理学提供一个强有力的新工具。这项工作的结果将广泛传播给一般的海洋学社区，K-12机构，以及广大人口，通过基于网络的服务器使用现有的基础设施在提议？机构。基于web的用户可以访问模型结果，并使用选定的参数设置运行模型，以在选定的气候强迫情景下获得对洋流、水文和浮游生物丰度模式的预测。研究人员将资助本科生在科学和公共宣传方面的项目。与necosee， SEA LAB和Whyville项目合作，为K12学生和国内和国际公众提供教育推广。

The goal of GLOBEC is to understand the underlying biological-physical interactions that determine how climate change affects abundance of marine animals. The GLOBEC approach focuses on individuals and populations dynamics of target species. This study will address major PRS themes by examining the influence of climate on physical and biological processes for a synthetic understanding of how basin- and global-scales changes in climate force physical processes that control local and panregional-scale biological communities. The investigators will use the approaches suggested in the RFP, including panregional physical-biological modeling, by connecting and comparing NWA and Arctic Ocean regions. As part of the GLOBEC NW Atlantic (NWA) program, they developed a 3D biological-physical model to examine effects of climate forced boundary conditions on plankton and dominant copepod species dynamics in the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region. Separately, they have also developed a new 3D model of the Arctic Ocean (AO) region and are using it to examine transport of dominant copepod species. As yet, these two models have not been connected to each other. In this pan-regional study, the investigators will combine these models to study linkages between these two systems under scenarios of global warming. They will examine a series of hypotheses that address how dominant copepod species populations in these regions may interact under future warming conditions. Specifically they will use the combined model together with existing data on abundances and vital rates to study how a melting Arctic is likely to affect the distribution and abundance of copepod species across the whole of the Arctic-North Atlantic panregional domain. The proposed work involves four steps: 1) merge the NWA and AO physical models via a new global model grid, extending their lower food web model (NPZD) across the pan-regional domain, to generate present and future (2050) environmental conditions. 2) use these modeled environmental conditions together with life histories of key species to determine their population growth potential within and across regions, 3) use an individual based model (IBM) parameterized for key species to examine effects of transport and behavior on population growth and resulting pan-regional distribution patterns, 4) develop a new evolutionary IBM for a generic copepod to determine selection of optimal life history traits under existing and future (warm) conditions across the pan-regional domain.This detailed, process-oriented, pan-regional modeling study will provide new insights into the biological-physical mechanisms that determine how global warming affects populations of key marine zooplankton species, which occupy a central position in marine food webs. The resulting model will provide a powerful new tool for understanding how pan-regional interactions control ecology and biogeography of dominant marine species.Results of this work will be broadly disseminated to the general oceanographic community, K-12 institutions, and to the population at large, through web-based servers using existing infrastructure at the proposers? institutions. Web-based users can access model results and run the model using chosen parameter settings to obtain predictions of currents, hydrography, and plankton abundance patterns given selected climate forcing scenarios. The investigators will sponsor undergraduate students in scientific and public outreach aspects of the project. Collaboration with the NE COSEE, SEA LAB, and Whyville programs for educational outreach with K12 students and the public both nationally and internationally.