Immigration and the Dynamics of Labor Market Adjustment

PI：泰德？移民与美国劳动力市场调整的动态？摘要本研究项目探讨移民对本地工人就业和工资的影响。在学术文献中，有人认为移民对工资和就业的影响即使不是零，也是很小的，而另一些人则认为移民对受教育程度较低的本土工人有很大的负面影响。这场辩论已经蔓延到媒体，反映了整个社会对移民辩论的两极分化。解决这场争论的关键在于我们对劳动力市场如何适应移民涌入的理解。由于当地劳动力市场通过本地工人从高移民地区向外迁移或吸收移民劳动力的行业的工作向内迁移而迅速调整，当地层面的负面影响有可能迅速扩散到全国各地，并且大多数现有研究中观察到的时间间隔长度？通常是两次人口普查之间的10年？太长了，无法模拟调整过程。利用最新的纵向雇主家庭动态（LEHD）数据中关于工人收入和地理位置的季度个人和公司层面的行政数据，调查人员将通过长期跟踪个人工人来模拟劳动力市场调整的过程。LEHD结合了详细的地理信息和十年一次的人口普查的大样本量的好处，以及个人纵向数据集的优势。这些独特的数据将使调查人员能够模拟其他使用人口普查数据的研究所遗漏的短期影响，并记录特定行业移民对失业工人的长期影响。调查人员还将在详细的行业和公司一级按职业分析本地工人和移民工人之间技能互补性的影响。拟议的研究有可能为移民对劳动力市场的影响这个问题提供一个明确的答案。研究结果将通过提供有关劳动力市场影响的明确实证证据，为有关移民的重要公共政策辩论提供信息。

PI: Ted Mouw?Immigration and the Dynamics of Labor Market Adjustment in the United States?AbstractThis research project examines the effect of immigration on the employment and wages of native workers. There is a contentious debate in the academic literature between those who see the see the effect of immigration on wages and employment as small, if not zero, and those who argue that there is a substantial negative effect for less-educated native workers. This debate has spilled over into the media and mirrors the polarization of the immigration debate in society as a whole. The key to resolving this debate hinges on our understanding of how the labor market adjusts to an influx of immigrants. As the local labor market quickly adjusts through the out-migration of native workers away from high-immigration areas or the in-migration of jobs in industries that absorb immigrant labor, it is possible that the negative impact at the local level is quickly diffused throughout the country, and that the length of time between observations in most existing studies?typically the 10 years between censuses?is too long to model the process of adjustment. With quarterly individual and firm-level administrative data on the earnings and geographic location of workers from the newly available Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD) data, the investigators will model the process of labor market adjustment by following individual workers over time. The LEHD combines the benefits of the detailed geographic information and large sample size of the decennial census with the strengths of individual longitudinal data sets. This unique data will allow the investigators to model the short-term effects that are missed by other studies that use census data, as well as document the longer-term effects on workers who are displaced by immigration in specific industries. The investigators will also analyze the impact of skill complementarities between native and immigrant workers by occupation within detailed industries and at the firm level. The proposed research has the potential to provide a definitive answer to the question of the effect of immigration on the labor market. The findings will be used to inform the important public policy debate over immigration by providing clear empirical evidence on labor market impacts.