EFRI-RESIN: Assessing and Managing Cascading Failure Vulnerabilities of Complex, Interdependent, Interactive, Adaptive Human-based Infrastructure Systems

项目负责人姓名：Robert beu机构：加州大学伯克利分校提案号：0836047该奖项是研究与创新新兴领域（NSF 07-579）招标的结果，分主题为弹性和可持续基础设施（树脂）。该研究项目是一项跨学科合作研究，旨在创建、验证和应用新的风险评估和管理（RAM）方法，以评估和改进相互依赖的复杂基础设施系统（ICISs）的设计、运行和维护。最近新奥尔良地区的ICISs因卡特里娜飓风而失败，这清楚地表明，人员、组织、社会、文化和政治因素是确保ICISs可靠性和性能的主要因素。为了理解和改善ICISs的行为，有必要将物理/环境科学（技术）与社会科学（人和组织因素）相结合。研究小组将研究加州萨克拉门托-圣华金三角洲的防洪、水分配和电力供应系统。这些系统嵌入在一个复杂而敏感的生态系统中。它们还与通信、运输和应急服务等其他重要的综合综合服务系统共存。与美国其他地区的ICISs一样，由于老化、延期维护、社会需求增加和自然灾害，它们的有效性和性能随着时间的推移而下降。本研究的最终目标是学习如何提高ICISs的弹性和可持续性，同时保持其他重要的性能特征，如可维护性、安全性、耐久性和兼容性。这项研究建立在二十多年的跨学科合作研究的基础上，在此期间，研究了600多起涉及ICISs的重大事故和灾难。过去的研究已经导致了ICISs工程RAM方法的制定和测试。本研究解决了下一代RAM方法开发中的两个重要组成部分：(1)ICISs的故障概率，P[F]，以及(2)故障后果，C[F]。反过来，P[F]包含两种不同类型的不确定性：(1)内在的（自然的和分析的），P[I]和(2)外在的（人和组织的），P[E]。该研究的目标是实现对P[F]和C[F]的更现实的评估，确定减轻和控制P[F]和C[F]的新方法，并改进向政策和决策者提供风险信息的方式。该提案的主要智力优点是整合了环境，物理和社会科学，以开发综合RAM方法，用于有效设计，操作和ICISs的性能。这项研究对研究和实践社区以及社会的主要好处是：(1)改善对地理信息系统的评估和管理，(2)改善对未来工程师的教育，(3)建立先进的地理信息系统（gis）来实施提高地理信息系统可靠性和质量所需的技术

PI name: Robert BeaInstitution: University of California-BerkeleyProposal Number: 0836047This award is an outcome of the competition as part of the Emerging Frontiers in Research and Innovation (NSF 07-579) solicitation under the subtopic Resilient and Sustainable Infrastructures (RESIN). The research project is a collaborative interdisciplinary study to create, validate, and apply new Risk Assessment and Management (RAM) methods to assess and improve the design, operation, and maintenance of interdependent complex infrastructure systems (ICISs). The recent failures of ICISs for the Greater New Orleans area due to Hurricane Katrina demonstrate unequivocally that human, organizational, social, cultural, and political considerations are major factors in assuring the reliability and performance of ICISs. To understand and improve the behavior of ICISs, it is necessary to integrate the physical / environmental sciences (technology) with the social sciences (human and organizational factors). The research team will study the California Sacramento - San Joaquin Delta flood protection, water distribution, and power supply systems. These systems are embedded in a complex and sensitive ecosystem. They also co-exist with other important ICISs such as communications, transportation, and emergency services. Like ICISs in other parts of the U.S., their effectiveness and performance have eroded over time due to age, deferred maintenance, increasing societal demands, and natural hazards. The ultimate goal of this research is to learn how to improve the resiliency and sustainability of ICISs, while maintaining other vital performance characteristics such as serviceability, safety, durability, and compatibility. The research builds on more than two decades of collaborative interdisciplinary research during which over 600 major accidents and disasters involving ICISs were studied. The past research has resulted in the formulation and testing of engineering RAM methods for ICISs. This research addresses two vital components in the development of next generation RAM methods: (1) the probability of failure, P[F], of ICISs, and (2) the consequences of failures, C[F]. In turn, P[F] incorporates two different types of uncertainties: (1) Intrinsic (natural and analytical), P[I], and (2) Extrinsic (human and organizational), P[E]. The goals of the research are to achieve more realistic assessments of P[F] and C[F], to identify new means for mitigating and controlling P[F] and C[F], and to improve how risk information is delivered to policy and decision makers. The proposal's primary intellectual merit is the integration of the environmental, physical, and social sciences for the development of comprehensive RAM methods for the effective design, operation, and performance of ICISs. The primary benefits of this research to the research and practice communities, and to society, are to: (1) enable improved assessments and management of ICISs, (2) improve the education of future engineers and, (3) build advanced Geographic Information Systems (GISs) to implement the technologies required to improve the reliability and quality of ICISs