Evaluation of Uncertainty in CO2 Sequestration Modeling: a Flow Relevance Study using Experimental Stratigraphy and Field Verification (Teapot Dome, Wyoming)

二氧化碳封存模型不确定性的评估：使用实验地层学和现场验证的流动相关性研究(怀俄明州茶壶穹顶)怀俄明州大学Ye Zhang EAR-0838250将超临界二氧化碳(CO2)注入沉积盆地的深层渗透性地层已被认为是一种可行的温室气体封存(地质储存)方法。含水层的储存效率和注入后的潜在渗漏都是需要考虑的关键因素。尽管数值模拟提供了一个关键的评估工具，但模型结构中存在多个不确定源，这给预测储藏层中的二氧化碳流动带来了很大的不确定性。例如，一个重要的概念模型不确定性是可以用来表示地层的多个同质性水平，这通常受到特定地点数据的质量和可获得性的限制。对于给定的模型，某些参数对预测结果的影响比其他参数更大，因此在现场评估中，需要更好地了解不同数据类型的价值和相关性。这项建议旨在通过双管齐下的战略来解决这一根本评估问题。首先，将在一个新的、以实验为基础的合成含水层以及三个日益均质化的模型(即相-尺度、相-组合-尺度、地层尺度表示)中进行CO2流动模拟。为了评估参数的不确定性，模拟将在基于实验设计的有效计算框架内进行。通过比较模型预测(所有情景)和灵敏度(影响二氧化碳流动的最重要参数)，将确定最佳的模型复杂性水平。所获得的洞察力将有助于指导在怀俄明州茶壶穹顶进行二氧化碳注射测试的特定地点模型的开发。在现场试验建模中，将通过将模拟与数据收集和现场观察相结合，在动态环境中验证分析工作流程。结果将阐明二氧化碳建模中需要更好表征的最相关的数据类型。由于碳地球储存的成功实施取决于技术评估研究的准确性和成本效益，因此我们的工作将具有广泛的科学意义和高度的社会意义。

Evaluation of Uncertainty in CO2 Sequestration Modeling: a Flow Relevance Study using Experimental Stratigraphy and Field Verification (Teapot Dome, Wyoming)Ye ZhangEAR-0838250University of WyomingABSTRACTInjection of supercritical carbon dioxide (CO2) into deep permeable formations of sedimentary basins has been proposed as a viable approach to greenhouse gas sequestration (geostorage). Both aquifer storage efficiency and potential leakage subsequent to injection are critical factors for consideration. Though numerical modeling provides a key assessment tool, multiple sources of uncertainty exist in the model construct, creating significant uncertainty in predicting CO2 flow in the storage formations. For example, one important conceptual model uncertainty is the multiple levels of homogeneity with which a formation can be represented, which are typically constrained by the quality and accessibility of site-specific data. For a given model, some parameters exert more influence on the prediction outcomes than others, thus in site evaluations, the value and relevance of diverse data types need to be better understood. This proposal aims to address this fundamental assessment issue with a two-pronged strategy. First, CO2 flow simulations will be conducted in a novel, experiment-based synthetic aquifer as well as in three increasingly homogenized models (i.e., facies-scale, facies-assemblage-scale, formation scale representations). To assess parameter uncertainties, the simulations will be conducted within an efficient computation framework based on the Design of Experiment. By comparing model predictions (full range of scenarios) and sensitivity (the most significant parameters impacting CO2 flow), an optimal level of model complexity will be determined. The insights gained will then help guide the development of a site-specific model for a CO2 injection test in the Teapot Dome, Wyoming. In modeling the field test, the analysis workflow will be validated in a dynamic setting by integrating simulation with data collection and field observation. Results will clarify the most relevant data types in CO2 modeling that require better characterization. Since successful implementation of carbon geostorage depends on both the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of the technical assessment studies, our work will be of broad scientific significance as well as high societal relevance.