CAREER: Scale-independent Measures and Prediction of Space Weather

该项目将对磁暴的统计性质和预测的研究与大学生和K-12教师的教育组成部分结合起来。现有的风暴预报系统在全球范围内做得很好，但没有考虑到局部的可变性。了解当地变化特别重要，因为磁层-电离层系统的耦合产生了取决于当地时间和纬度的地球空间和地面磁变化。将审查几个不同的分专题：(1)地面磁力计时间序列的分维和多重分维特征；(2)确定非风暴时间和风暴时间动态之间的标度行为的特征差异；(3)从空间上分离的磁力计的时空统计变化，作为接近磁暴的函数。对于问题(1)，分析技术将包括单分形重标度极差分析、去趋势波动分析和多重分形子波分析。这些方法是适当的，因为它们考虑了磁强计测量的高分辨率，以及这些数据的间歇性、非高斯性和非平稳性。对于问题(2)，将根据风暴阶段进行分析。这将开发出通过非线性统计的变化来确定风暴开始的方法。问题(3)将提供一种方法，将风暴预报扩展到没有观测站的地点，并描绘出总体(地面)风暴行为的图景。教育倡议将包括TEACHSPACE和项目启动计划。这些计划解决了提高人们对科学和工程教育的兴趣的需要，但也解决了少数民族和传统上服务不足的学生在数学和科学成就方面的差距。该项目将侧重于为K-12教师举办讲习班。P.I.将参与举办关于空间科学的讲习班和讲座，以及开发实验室实验和教学材料。

This project combines research on the statistical nature and prediction of magnetic storms with educational components for both university students and K-12 teachers. Existing storm prediction systems do a good job on global scales but do not account for local variability. An understanding of local variations is particularly important since coupling of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system produces geospace and ground magnetic variations that depend on both local time and latitude. Several different subtopics will be examined: (1) fractal and multi-fractal characteristics of ground-based magnetometer time-series; (2) determination of characteristic differences in the scaling behavior between non-storm time and storm time dynamics; (3) the spatiotemporal statistical variations, from spatially separated magnetometers, as a function of proximity to a magnetic storm. For problem (1) the analysis techniques will include mono-fractal rescaled range, detrended fluctuation, and multi-fractal wavelet analyses. These approaches are appropriate since they take into account the very high resolution of magnetometer measurements, and also the intermittent, non-Gaussian, and nonstationary character of these data. For problem (2), analyses will be performed in terms of storm phases. This will develop methods to determine storm onsets via variations in nonlinear statistics. Problem (3) will provide a way to extend storm predictions to locations where there are no observing stations, and to paint a picture of overall (ground-based) storm behavior.The educational initiatives will include the TEACHSPACE and Project LAUNCH programs. These programs address the need to increase interest in science and engineering education, but also the disparity in mathematics and science achievement in minority and traditionally underserved students. The project will focus on workshops for K-12 teachers. The P.I. will be involved in the delivery of workshops and lectures on space science, and development of laboratory experiments and instructional materials.