CNH: Assessing and Adaptively Managing Wildfire Risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface

该项目旨在提高蒙大拿州弗拉黑德县利益相关者（土地和荒地火灾管理机构、房主、土地开发商/房屋建筑商和社区/区域规划者）的能力，根据未来的气候变化和未来向荒地地区的住宅扩张，评估和管理荒地-城市界面（WUI）的野火风险。该项目还将提高广大社区（中学生、高中生、参加青年和成人环境教育课程的人员以及信息人员）对WUI野火的性质、效益和风险的认识和理解。本项目的研究目标是：(1)建立一个名为firelim的野火-气候模型，模拟WUI地区气候变化、住宅开发扩展到荒地地区和野火风险之间的复杂相互作用；(2)展示了在未来50年（2008 - 2058年）不同气候变化和经济增长情景下，当地利益相关者如何利用FIRECLIM模型做出与野火相关的事前最佳决策；(3)验证了未来气候变化、未来居民点向荒地扩张以及土地利用政策变化对未来森林火灾和未来森林火灾风险的影响；(4)建立一个事后决策框架，使利益共同体可以利用该框架自适应地管理WUI未来的野火风险；(5)构建基于网络的交互式空间决策支持工具，促进社区对事前和事后决策框架的应用。该项目的教育目标是：(1)培养未来的从业者和科学家在管理未来野火风险的自然-人类耦合系统的跨学科建模和分析方面；(2)在不同的气候变化、经济增长和土地利用政策前景下，提高利益共同体评估和管理WUI地区野火风险的能力；(3)将研究成果纳入教育产品，以增加更广泛的社区？对野火和野火风险的了解和知识。FIRECLIM模型集成了景观火灾动力学模拟模型、结构着火评估模型、基于主体的行为模型以及气候变化和经济增长的未来。我们将建立并与四个由利益团体代表组成的代理小组合作，以确定最小化净野火风险或最大化防御性火灾措施投资预期回报的替代决策。我们对净野火风险的测量有些独特，因为它既考虑了野火的预期损失，也考虑了野火的预期收益。我们将使用适应性管理框架来评估代理人如何根据未来的气候变化和未来向荒地地区扩展住宅开发来调整他们与野火相关的决策，该框架在风险情况下采用贝叶斯统计分析，在不确定性情况下采用最小最大遗憾标准。气候变化的未来将基于IPCC的情景，为替代经济增长和土地利用政策的未来，将使用生态系统景观建模系统模拟住宅开发到荒地地区。该项目是同类研究中第一个评估未来气候变化和未来向荒地地区扩展住宅开发如何影响WUI野火和野火风险的项目。通过将研究成果纳入旨在改善更广泛社区的五种产品，将促进项目成果的传播。对野火和野火风险管理的认识和理解：(1)一个决策支持工具，促进社区对未来野火风险的适应性管理；(2)教育项目，使社区有兴趣了解野火风险、气候变化、土地利用变化和经济发展之间的相互作用；(3)开设一到两天的关于野火在生态系统中的作用的成人环境教育课程；(4)交互式计算机模拟程序，允许用户在假设的WUI中交互式地模拟与野火相关的决策，以替代未来气候和经济增长的变化；(5)一本暂定名为《在荒地-城市界面中管理未来野火风险》的书。此外，该项目将培训未来的从业人员和科学家如何管理未来的野火风险，并涉及一名国际研究人员和来自澳大利亚的研究生。项目人员包括来自迪肯大学（澳大利亚）、林登伍德大学（密苏里州）、蒙大拿大学、密苏里大学、美国林务局和美国地质调查局的科学家。机构合作者包括弗拉黑德保留地的萨利什和库特奈部落联盟、弗拉黑德县紧急服务办公室、弗拉黑德县规划和分区、弗拉黑德国家森林、冰川国家公园、蒙大拿州自然资源和保护部以及冰川研究所。

This project aims to enhance the capacity of stakeholders (land and wildland fire management agencies, homeowners, land developers/homebuilders, and community/regional planners) in Flathead County, Montana to assess and manage wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) in light of future climate change and future residential expansion into wildland areas. The project will also improve knowledge and understanding among the broader community (middle school students, high school students, persons in youth and adult environmental education courses, and information personnel) about the nature, benefits, and risks of wildfire in the WUI.Research objectives of the project are to: (1) develop a wildfire-climate model called FIRECLIM that simulates the complex interactions among climate change, expansion of residential development into wildland areas, and wildfire risk in the WUI; (2) demonstrate how the FIRECLIM model can be used by local stakeholders to make optimal ex ante wildfire-related decisions under alternative climate change and economic growth scenarios for the next 50 years (2008 to 2058); (3) test several hypotheses about how future climate change, future residential expansion into wildland areas, and changes in land use policy are likely to influence future wildfires and future wildfire risk in the WUI; (4) develop an ex post decision framework that the community of interest can use to adaptively manage future wildfire risk in the WUI; and (5) construct a Web-based, interactive, spatial decision support tool that facilitates application of the ex ante and ex post decision frameworks by the community of interest. Educational objectives of the project are to: (1) train future practitioners and scientists in interdisciplinary modeling and analysis of a coupled natural-human system for managing future wildfire risk; (2) improve the capacity of the community of interest to assess and manage wildfire risk in the WUI under alternative climate change, economic growth futures, and land use policy futures; and (3) incorporate the research results into educational products that increase the broader community?s understanding and knowledge of wildfire and wildfire risk. The FIRECLIM model integrates a landscape fire dynamics simulation model, a structure ignition assessment model, agent-based behavioral models, and climate change and economic growth futures. We will establish and collaborate with four agent panels composed of representatives of the community of interest to identify alternative decisions for either minimizing net wildfire risk or maximizing expected return on investment in defensive fire measures. Our measure of net wildfire risk is somewhat unique because it accounts for both the expected losses and expected benefits of wildfires. We will evaluate how agents can adapt their wildfire-related decisions to future climate change and future expansion of residential development into wildland areas using an adaptive management framework that employs Bayesian statistical analysis for the risk case and the minimax regret criterion for the uncertainty case. Climate change futures will be based on IPCC scenarios, and residential development into wildland areas for alternative economic growth and land use policy futures will be simulated using the Ecosystem Landscape Modeling System. The project is the first study of its kind to assess how future climate change and future expansion of residential development into wildland areas influences wildfire and wildfire risk in the WUI. Dissemination of project results will be facilitated by incorporating research results into five products designed to improve the broader community?s knowledge and understanding of wildfire and wildfire risk management: (1) a decision support tool that facilitates adaptive management of future wildfire risk by the community of interest; (2) educational programs that enable the community of interest to learn about the interactions among wildfire risk, climate change, land use change, and economic development; (3) a new, one- to two-day, adult environmental education course on the role of wildfire in ecosystems; (4) an interactive, computer simulation program that allows users to interactively simulate wildfire-related decisions for alternative future changes in climate and economic growth in a hypothetical WUI; and (5) a book tentatively titled Managing Future Wildfire Risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface. In addition, the project will train future practitioners and scientists in ways to manage future wildfire risk and involve an international researcher and graduate student from Australia. Project personnel include scientists from Deakin University (Australia), Lindenwood University (Missouri), The University of Montana, University of Missouri, the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Institutional collaborators include the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes of the Flathead Reservation, Flathead County Office of Emergency Services, Flathead County Planning and Zoning, Flathead National Forest, Glacier National Park, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, and the Glacier Institute.