Third Party Peacemaking in Civil Wars: The Effectiveness of Information Providers.

局外人如何帮助陷入致命冲突的行为者和平解决分歧？这个问题经常由缔造和平的实践者、政策分析家和学者提出。该项目利用统计分析和深入的案例研究，审查冲突以外的个人和组织如何通过向交战各方提供信息，即充当调解人或顾问，为结束内战作出贡献。最近的研究已开始具体说明第三方为缔造和平作出贡献的方式。第三方提供帮助的一种方式是保证原本无法执行的和解协议的条款。然而，这种保障的可信度往往是战斗人员严重关切的问题。为了说服各方承诺和解，第三方担保人可能不得不部署压倒性的武力或表现出使用暴力的意愿。这个项目专注于一个成本较低、风险较低的第三方角色：提供信息。通过向战斗人员提供建议或建议，第三方可以帮助实现可自我强制执行的解决办法，因为这反映了力量和决心的平衡。信息提供商如何才能变得更加有效？这一项目考验了两个主要期望：1)早期和持久的缔造和平比冲突后期的一次性努力更有见地、更可信，因此更有效；2)第三方可以通过提供发展援助、财政资源或其他投资，证明他们对和平进程的真正承诺，从而提高他们的信誉。根据1989年至2008年期间所有武装冲突中第三方缔造和平的新数据库，对这些期望进行了检验。这一新的数据集提供了比当前数据库更多的细节。它包括关于第三方的信息，从知名人士(例如纳尔逊·曼德拉)到国家代表，再到政府间组织(例如联合国和欧洲联盟)。特别注意非国家第三方(如个人、非政府组织和宗教行为者)。该项目的一个重要方面是对“优质和平”的关注，而不仅仅是没有积极战斗。它不仅侧重于第三方如何为在内战中放下武器作出贡献，而且还侧重于加强对人权的尊重和减少贫穷。

How can outsiders help actors locked in deadly conflict settle their differences peacefully? This question is often raised by peacemaking practitioners, policy analysts, and academics. Using statistical analyses and in-depth case studies, this project examines how individuals and organizations outside the conflict can contribute to ending civil wars by providing information to the warring parties, i.e., by acting as mediators or advisors. Recent studies have begun to specify ways in which third parties contribute to peacemaking. One way third parties help is by guaranteeing the terms of an otherwise unenforceable settlement. However, the credibility of such guarantees is often a serious concern to the combatants. To persuade the actors to commit to the settlement, a third party guarantor may have to deploy overwhelming force or demonstrate willingness to use violence. This project focuses on a less costly and risky third-party role: providing information. By offering proposals or advice to the combatants, the third party can help bring about a settlement that is self-enforceable because it reflects the balance of power and resolve. How can information providers become even more effective? This project tests two main expectations: 1) that early and sustained peacemaking is more informed and credible, and thus more effective, than one-off efforts late in a conflict, and 2) that third parties can boost their credibility by providing development aid, financial resources, or other investments that demonstrate their genuine commitment to the peace process. These expectations are tested against a new database on third party peacemaking in all armed conflicts between 1989 and 2008. This new dataset provides much more detail than current databases. It includes information on third parties ranging from prominent individuals, (e.g., Nelson Mandela), to representatives of states, to inter-governmental organizations (e.g., the United Nations and the European Union). Special attention is paid to non-state third parties (e.g., individuals, non-governmental organizations, and religious actors). An important aspect of this project is concern for "quality peace" and not just the absence of active fighting. It focuses not only on how third parties may contribute to the laying down of arms in civil wars, but also to increased respect for human rights and reduced poverty.