Testing a neutral model for the biotic effects of sea-level change

为海平面变化的生物效应测试中性模型乔治亚大学的斯蒂芬·霍兰德EAR-0948895ABSTRACT现代生态学研究表明，合适的栖息地面积如何控制陆地生物的多样性。此外，物种远距离传播的能力不仅影响到局部地区的多样性，也影响到更广泛地区的多样性。在海洋领域，海平面的变化可以直接控制浅海大陆架栖息地的面积，也可以影响大陆架上栖息地类型的分布。因此，海平面变化有可能推动浅海海洋生物多样性的变化。因此，海平面变化可能是在地质时间尺度上看到的海洋生物多样性变化的原因，并有可能在不久的将来随着全球海平面上升而影响海洋生物多样性。这项研究将结合使用计算机建模、对远古地质过去海平面变化的多样性变化的实地研究以及对海洋化石记录的数据库分析，测试浅水海洋生物的多样性对海平面变化的反应。野外工作将在美国东部的晚奥陶世(~450 Ma)岩石中进行，基于之前NSF资助的研究中获得的数据。本研究采用Hubbell-S(2001)模型，对物种多样性与栖息地面积和扩散势之间的关系进行了定量预测。建模、现场和数据库方法的结合将在生态学和古生物学的当前研究中架起桥梁，这两个领域历史上几乎没有互动，尽管它们的重点有很大的重叠。这项研究的资金将支持本科生研究和研究生的培养。这项研究中开发的统计方法还将作为免费软件分发，供科学家和普通公众使用。

Testing a neutral model for the biotic effects of sea-level changeStephen Holland, University of GeorgiaEAR- 0948895ABSTRACTModern ecological studies have demonstrated how the area of suitable habitat governs the diversity of terrestrial organisms. In addition, the ability of species to disperse over broad distances affects diversity not only in local areas but also over broader regions. In the marine realm, changes in sea level can directly control the area of shallow marine continental shelf habitats and can also affect the distribution of habitat types on a shelf. As a result, sea-level change has the potential to drive changes in shallow marine biodiversity. Sea-level changes may therefore be responsible for the changes in marine biodiversity seen over geologic time scales and have the potential to affect marine biodiversity in the near future as global sea level rises.This research will test how the diversity of shallow-marine organisms responds to sea-level change, using a combination of computer modeling, field study of diversity changes in response to sea-level change in the distant geologic past, and database analysis of the marine fossil record. Field work will be conducted in Late Ordovician (~450 Ma) rocks of the eastern United States, building on data acquired in previous NSF-funded studies. This research will apply Hubbell?s (2001) model, which makes quantitative predictions about the relationship of diversity to habitat area and dispersal potential. The combination of modeling, field, and database approaches will bridge current research in ecology and paleontology, two fields that have historically had little interaction despite substantial overlap in their focus. Funds from this research will support the training of undergraduate research and a graduate student. Statistical methods developed in this research will also be distributed as freeware for use by scientists and the general public.