Collaborative Research: Assessing Assessments: A Historical and Philosophical Study of Scientific Assessments for Environmental Policy in the Late 20th Century

评估评估：20世纪末环境政策科学评估的历史和哲学研究智力价值这个项目调查科学家试图准确、公平、客观地评估和总结社会需要的科学知识的过程，社会需要这些知识来对复杂的问题做出明智的判断。科学家如何评估他们同事的可靠性？研究，了解它的限度和不确定性程度，并达成共识(或不)？当科学家知道世界正在关注这一过程的结果时，他们如何应对出现的微妙或公开的压力？过程内部的哪些因素可能导致系统性偏差、误差或失真？应政策制定者的要求，科学家们定期聚在一起，为公众提供科学信息，特别是在与政策有关的环境科学领域。最近的例子包括国家酸降水评估方案、臭氧趋势小组和政府间气候变化专门委员会，它们分别为总结和评估有关酸雨、全球臭氧消耗和人为气候变化的最新技术状况而组织。这样的评估耗费了大量的时间、金钱和人力，在政策辩论中可以发挥重要作用。因此，重要的是要了解它们是如何工作的(或无法工作)。然而，很少有学者对它们进行研究。更广泛的影响了解评估过程的内部动态，使我们能够更好地判断任何特定评估的质量，并提出潜在的改进方法，最终为以科学为基础的政策提供更好的基础。认为评估应该影响政策的假设是，这些评估的质量很高，但很少有人仔细研究这一假设。

Assessing Assessments: A Historical and Philosophical Study of Scientific Assessments for Environmental Policy in the late 20th CenturyIntellectual meritThis project investigates the process by which scientists attempt to assess and summarize--accurately, fairly, objectively--the scientific knowledge that society needs to make informed judgments about complex issues. How do scientists evaluate the reliability of their colleagues? research, understand its limits and degrees of uncertainty, and come to consensus (or not)? How do scientists respond to the subtle or overt pressures that arise when they know the world is watching the outcome of the process? What factors internal to the process may lead to systematic bias, error, or distortion? Periodically, scientists come together to present scientific information at the request of policy-makers and for the benefit of the general public, particularly in the area of environmental science relevant to policy. Recent examples include the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program, the Ozone Trends Panel, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, organized to summarize and assess the state of the art with respect to acid rain, global ozone depletion, and anthropogenic climate change, respectively. Such assessments consume large amounts of time, money, and manpower, and they can play a major role in policy debates. Therefore, it is important to understand how they work (or fail to work). Yet, few scholars have studied them. Broader ImpactUnderstanding the internal dynamics of the assessment process puts us in a better position to judge the quality of any particular assessment, as well as to suggest potential means of improvement, and, ultimately, to provide an improved foundation for science-based policy. The presumption that assessments should influence policy assumes that the quality of these assessments is high, but that assumption has rarely been closely examined.