Investigating the Electoral Impact and Deliberation of the Oregon Citizens' Initiative Review

2009年6月，俄勒冈州州长签署了一项法案，为2010年全州大选建立公民倡议审查（CIR）小组。在2010年夏天，18-24名俄勒冈州公民的分层随机样本将对一项倡议进行为期5天的审议，然后准备一份一页的声明，由俄勒冈州国务卿分发给每个登记选民。这项研究是第一次有机会评估一个小型审议小组的影响（即，在大规模的选举过程中。为此，本项目将解决两个问题。首先，研究评估CIR过程是否保持其设计的完整性，并导致其公民小组成员参与高质量的审议，产生一个消息灵通和合理的小册子声明。为了解决这个问题，该项目的研究小组评估了CIR本身：其总体设计及其审议和判断的合理性。这包括创建和分析CIR小组会议的文字记录，以及CIR规划过程的档案记录。其次，调查人员探讨CIR在选民手册中的声明是否对选举产生实质性影响：它是否改变了人们选择投票的方式以及他们为投票选择给出的理由。该项目的大部分预算将通过对可能的俄勒冈州选民进行小组调查来衡量选举影响，第一波调查发生在第一个CIR小组开会之前，第二波调查发生在选举结束时。调查的设计和内容将使人们有可能辨别俄勒冈州选民阅读或以其他方式了解选民手册中的CIR声明的程度，以及这些声明是否直接影响他们的投票或通过塑造他们对相关赞成和反对论点或事实争议的看法。这项研究将有助于从业人员改善投票倡议的过程。

In June 2009 Oregon's governor signed into law a bill to create Citizens' Initiative Review (CIR) panels for the 2010 statewide general election. Two-to-three times in the summer of 2010, a stratified random sample of 18-24 Oregon citizens will deliberate on an initiative for 5 days, then prepare a one-page statement that goes into the official Voters' Pamphlet distributed to each registered voter by the Oregon Secretary of State. This research is the first opportunity to assess the impact of a small deliberative group (i.e., the CIR panels) on a large-scale electoral process. In doing so, this project will address two questions. First, the research assesses whether the CIR process maintains its design integrity and leads its citizen panelists to engage in high-quality deliberation that yields a well-informed and reasoned Pamphlet statement. To address this question, the project's research team assesses the CIR itself: its overall design and the soundness of its deliberation and judgments. This involves creating and analyzing transcripts of the CIR panel meetings, as well as archival records of the CIR planning process.Second, the investigators explore whether the CIR's statement in the Voters' Pamphlet has a substantial electoral impact: whether it changes how people choose to vote and the reasons they give for the voting choices they make. The bulk of this project's budget will measure electoral impact through a panel survey of likely Oregon voters, with the first wave occurring before the first CIR panel convenes and the second coming at the end of the election. The design and content of the survey will make it possible to discern the degree to which Oregon voters read or otherwise learned about the CIR statements in the Voters' Pamphlet and whether those statements influenced their vote directly or by shaping their perceptions of relevant pro-and-con arguments or factual disputes. This research will help practitioners improve the ballot initiative process.