Collaborative Research: Spatial Analysis of Ecosystem Service Shifts Caused by Climate Change and Land Conversion in the Metropolitan Fringe

土地流转和气候变化正在迅速改变城乡结合部生态系统服务的提供、使用和价值。以前的大多数生态系统服务研究都涉及土地转换或气候变化对单个生态系统服务的影响，但不是两者兼而有之。此外，大多数生态系统服务模型还有待于用地块级别的数据和观测到的动态影响得到很好的验证。因此，衡量生态系统服务的大小和空间格局的变化以及多种生态系统服务之间的权衡的方法仍在制定和测试中。一个跨学科的科学家团队，包括地理学家、环境经济学家、生态学家和与社区合作伙伴合作的政策分析师，将使用两种生态系统服务评估模型(投资和环境计量)和现代空间分析，量化美国俄勒冈州威拉米特河谷北部快速变化的农村-城市边缘景观中生态系统服务提供、使用和价值的预期变化。研究人员将首先分析当前景观上从农场到景观的不同尺度上生态系统服务的生物物理提供、使用和经济价值。他们将在多个空间尺度上分别和联合地评估研究区域生态系统服务的这些水平和价值预计如何因土地利用/土地覆盖和气候变化而变化。研究人员将确定哪些区域，如果不那么密集地使用或保护，将最具成本效益地防止景观上生态系统服务价值的任何预期下降，其中成本效益是以每一次保护的经济机会成本产生的生态系统服务价值来衡量的。该项目将比较两种生态系统服务模式的产出，并在可能的情况下提出改进建议。调查人员将让政策利益攸关方参与分析，以探索生态系统服务科学、规模和复杂的政策谈判之间的相互作用。在分析的所有阶段，该项目将评估研究区物种栖息地的提供和格局，以及其维持当地物种的能力，如滨水鱼类。该项目将改进生态系统服务提供和价值分析方法，并通过使用现场数据检验两个模型来推进生态系统服务建模理论。因此，这项研究将阐明在快速发展的大都市边缘地区，多种生态系统服务转移和空间目标之间的权衡和互补之处，以维持生态系统服务。综合的空间方法将为空间生态系统服务研究提供一个极好的模式，为综合环境科学和管理的研究提供转变的机会。该项目将支持2008年农业法案的条款，该法案要求开发评估土地管理对生态系统服务的影响的工具，方法是指导有助于实地实施的区域规划和具体地点评估工具。该项目将产生丰富的数据和分析工具，直接帮助正在进行的综合生态系统服务市场的发展。信息交换中心将为合作创建市场的各种利益相关者(研究人员、州和联邦机构、政策制定者和非政府组织S)提供直接访问项目结果和数据集的机会，以评估政策选项。这项研究将为几名研究生和本科生以及一名博士后学者提供教育机会。

Land conversion and climate change are rapidly changing the provision, use, and value of ecosystem services on the rural-urban fringe landscapes. Most previous ecosystem service studies addressed the effects of either land conversion or climate change, but not both, on individual ecosystem services. Additionally most ecosystem services models have yet to be well-validated with plot-level data and observed dynamic effects. As a result, methodologies for measuring the changes in the magnitude and the spatial patterns of ecosystem services and tradeoffs among multiple ecosystem services are still being developed and tested. An interdisciplinary team of scientists, including geographers, environmental economists, ecologists, and policy analysts engaged with community partners, will use two ecosystem service assessment models (InVEST and Counting on the Environment metrics) and modern spatial analysis to quantify expected changes in ecosystem service provision, use, and value on a rapidly changing rural-urban fringe landscape in the Northern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The researchers will first analyze the biophysical provision, use, and economic value of ecosystem services on the current landscape at various scales, from farm to landscape. They will assess how these levels and values of ecosystem services are expected to change in the study region due to land use/land cover and climate change, separately and jointly, at multiple spatial scales. The investigators will determine what areas, if used less intensively or conserved, would most cost-effectively prevent any expected declines in the value of ecosystem services on the landscape where cost-effectiveness is measured as ecosystem service value generated per economic opportunity cost of conservation. This project will compare the outputs of two ecosystem service models and recommend improvements when possible. The investigators will engage policy stakeholders in the analysis to explore the interaction of ecosystem service science, scale, and complex policy negotiations. In all stages of analysis this project will assess the provision and pattern of species habitat in the study area and its ability to sustain native species, such as anadromous fish.This project will improve the ecosystem service provision and value analytical methodologies as well as advance the theory of ecosystem service modeling by testing two models with field data. This research will thus illuminate the unexplored area of tradeoffs and complementarities among multiple ecosystem services shifts and spatial targeting for land conservation to sustain ecosystem services in a rapidly growing metropolitan fringe. The integrated, spatial approach will provide an excellent model for spatial ecosystem services studies, offering opportunities for transforming the studies of integrated environmental sciences and management. This project will support provisions of the 2008 farm bill that mandates the development of tools for assessing the influence of land management on ecosystem services by guiding regional planning and site-specific assessment tools that help on-the ground implementation. The project will produce a rich collection of data and analytic tools that will directly assist the ongoing development of comprehensive ecosystem service marketplaces. An information clearinghouse will provide the range of stakeholders collaborating on the creation of the marketplace (researchers, state and federal agencies, policy makers, and NGO?s) direct access to project results and datasets for evaluating policy options. The research will provide educational opportunities for several graduate and undergraduate students and a post-doctoral scholar.