Collaborative Research: Spatial Analysis of Ecosystem Service Shifts Caused by Climate Change and Land Conversion in the Metropolitan Fringe

土地转换和气候变化正在迅速改变城乡边缘景观生态系统服务的提供、利用和价值。大多数以前的生态系统服务研究只涉及土地转换或气候变化对单个生态系统服务的影响，而不是两者都涉及。此外，大多数生态系统服务模型尚未得到样地数据和观测到的动态效应的充分验证。因此，衡量生态系统服务的规模和空间格局的变化以及多种生态系统服务之间的权衡的方法仍在开发和试验中。一个跨学科的科学家团队，包括地理学家、环境经济学家、生态学家和政策分析师，与社区合作伙伴合作，将使用两种生态系统服务评估模型（投资和依赖环境指标）和现代空间分析来量化美国俄勒冈州北威拉米特山谷快速变化的城乡边缘景观中生态系统服务提供、使用和价值的预期变化。研究人员将首先分析从农场到景观的不同尺度上的生态系统服务的生物物理供应、使用和经济价值。他们将评估在多个空间尺度上，由于土地利用/土地覆盖和气候变化，预计这些生态系统服务水平和价值将如何变化。调查人员将确定哪些地区，如果使用较少或得到保护，将最具成本效益地防止景观上生态系统服务价值的任何预期下降，而成本效益是以生态系统服务价值的每一个经济机会成本来衡量的。该项目将比较两种生态系统服务模式的产出，并在可能的情况下提出改进建议。研究人员将让政策利益相关者参与分析，探索生态系统服务科学、规模和复杂政策谈判之间的相互作用。在分析的所有阶段，本项目将评估研究地区物种栖息地的供应和模式，以及其维持本地物种（如溯河鱼类）的能力。本项目将改进生态系统服务提供和价值分析方法，并通过实地数据测试两个模型来推进生态系统服务建模理论。因此，本研究将阐明在快速发展的大都市边缘区，多种生态系统服务转换和土地保护的空间目标之间的权衡和互补的未开发领域。综合的空间方法将为空间生态系统服务研究提供一个极好的模式，为综合环境科学和管理研究的转变提供机会。该项目将支持2008年农业法案的规定，该法案要求开发评估土地管理对生态系统服务影响的工具，指导区域规划和具体地点评估工具，帮助实地实施。该项目将产生丰富的数据和分析工具，将直接帮助综合生态系统服务市场的持续发展。信息交换中心将为合作创建市场的利益相关者（研究人员、州和联邦机构、政策制定者和非政府组织）提供直接访问项目结果和数据集的机会，以评估政策选择。该研究将为几名研究生和本科生以及一名博士后提供教育机会。

Land conversion and climate change are rapidly changing the provision, use, and value of ecosystem services on the rural-urban fringe landscapes. Most previous ecosystem service studies addressed the effects of either land conversion or climate change, but not both, on individual ecosystem services. Additionally most ecosystem services models have yet to be well-validated with plot-level data and observed dynamic effects. As a result, methodologies for measuring the changes in the magnitude and the spatial patterns of ecosystem services and tradeoffs among multiple ecosystem services are still being developed and tested. An interdisciplinary team of scientists, including geographers, environmental economists, ecologists, and policy analysts engaged with community partners, will use two ecosystem service assessment models (InVEST and Counting on the Environment metrics) and modern spatial analysis to quantify expected changes in ecosystem service provision, use, and value on a rapidly changing rural-urban fringe landscape in the Northern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The researchers will first analyze the biophysical provision, use, and economic value of ecosystem services on the current landscape at various scales, from farm to landscape. They will assess how these levels and values of ecosystem services are expected to change in the study region due to land use/land cover and climate change, separately and jointly, at multiple spatial scales. The investigators will determine what areas, if used less intensively or conserved, would most cost-effectively prevent any expected declines in the value of ecosystem services on the landscape where cost-effectiveness is measured as ecosystem service value generated per economic opportunity cost of conservation. This project will compare the outputs of two ecosystem service models and recommend improvements when possible. The investigators will engage policy stakeholders in the analysis to explore the interaction of ecosystem service science, scale, and complex policy negotiations. In all stages of analysis this project will assess the provision and pattern of species habitat in the study area and its ability to sustain native species, such as anadromous fish.This project will improve the ecosystem service provision and value analytical methodologies as well as advance the theory of ecosystem service modeling by testing two models with field data. This research will thus illuminate the unexplored area of tradeoffs and complementarities among multiple ecosystem services shifts and spatial targeting for land conservation to sustain ecosystem services in a rapidly growing metropolitan fringe. The integrated, spatial approach will provide an excellent model for spatial ecosystem services studies, offering opportunities for transforming the studies of integrated environmental sciences and management. This project will support provisions of the 2008 farm bill that mandates the development of tools for assessing the influence of land management on ecosystem services by guiding regional planning and site-specific assessment tools that help on-the ground implementation. The project will produce a rich collection of data and analytic tools that will directly assist the ongoing development of comprehensive ecosystem service marketplaces. An information clearinghouse will provide the range of stakeholders collaborating on the creation of the marketplace (researchers, state and federal agencies, policy makers, and NGOs) direct access to project results and datasets for evaluating policy options. The research will provide educational opportunities for several graduate and undergraduate students and a post-doctoral scholar.