Collaborative Research: Continental-Scale Monitoring, Modeling and Forecasting of Phenological Responses to Climate Change

物候学这个术语既描述了植物和动物的季节节律，也描述了对这些节律的研究。植物物候过程，包括，例如，当叶子在春季出现和在秋季改变颜色时，对天气变化（例如，温暖与寒冷的春天）以及较长期的气候变化（例如，变暖趋势和降雨时间和数量的变化）高度敏感。一个由生态学家、地理学家和计算机科学家组成的跨学科小组将建立一个大陆尺度的观测网络，研究物候和气候之间的关系。具体来说，数码相机将实时图像发布到互联网上（网络摄像头），用于监测美国不同生态系统中植被的春季“绿起”和秋季“褐落”。该项目解决了生态学中的几个重大挑战问题，特别是在理解和预测气候变化对植物和生态系统的影响方面。该项目将预测物候学如何受到未来气候变化的影响，并将量化物候学未来的变化如何影响社会从自然和管理的生态系统中获得的一些服务，如农作物、林产品和清洁水。此外，该项目产生的数据将用于改善大尺度气候模式中物候过程的表示，这将有助于减少未来气候预报的不确定性。该项目包括本科生和研究生的研究机会，以及两名博士后研究助理的跨学科培训。由美国国家科学基金会赞助的哈佛大学本科生森林研究经验项目的暑期实习生将直接参与该项目，并与哈佛大学森林LTER校园项目和美国国家物候学网络合作，将促进公民科学家的参与。通过强调物候学是气候变化对生物影响的一个具体例子，这些推广工作将提高公众对21世纪人类面临的环境挑战的认识。

The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). An interdisciplinary team, comprised of ecologists, geographers, and computer scientists, will develop a continental-scale observational network to study relationships between phenology and climate. Specifically, digital cameras posting live imagery to the Internet (webcams) will be used to monitor spring "green up" and autumn "brown down" of vegetation in different ecosystems across the United States. This project addresses several grand challenge questions in ecology, particularly with respect to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on plants and ecosystems. This project will develop predictions of how phenology may be affected by future climate change, and will quantify how future changes in phenology may impact some of the services that society derives from natural and managed ecosystems, such as agricultural crops, forest products, and clean water. In addition, the data produced from this project will be used improve the representation of phenological processes in large-scale climate models, which will help to reduce uncertainties in future climate forecasts. This project includes research opportunities for undergraduate and graduate-level students, and interdisciplinary training for two postdoctoral research associates. Summer interns in the Harvard Forest Research Experience for Undergraduates program, sponsored by NSF, will be engaged directly in this project, and collaboration both with the Harvard Forest LTER Schoolyard program and the USA National Phenology Network, will foster involvement of citizen scientists. By highlighting phenology as a tangible example of the biological impacts of climate change, these outreach efforts will raise public awareness about the environmental challenges facing humanity in the 21st Century.